TABLE-IMF nudges up global economic outlook
July 29 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slightly upgraded its 2025 and 2026 economic outlook given stronger-than-expected purchases ahead of an August 1 jump in U.S. tariffs and a drop in the effective U.S. tariff rate to 17.3% from 24.4%.
| 2025 estimates | July vs prior estimates | |||||
| July | April | January | October | vs April | vs January | vs October |
World | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 0.2 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
United States | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.1 | -0.8 | -0.3 |
Euro Area | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
Germany | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.7 |
France | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.5 |
Italy | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
Spain | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
Japan | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
United Kingdom | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.3 |
Canada | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 0.2 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
Emerging Markets | 4.1 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
China | 4.8 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
India | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Russia | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
Brazil | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Mexico | 0.2 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | -1.2 | -1.1 |
Saudi Arabia | 3.6 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -1.0 |
Nigeria | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
South Africa | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| 2026 estimates | July vs prior estimates | |||||
| July | April | January | October | vs April | vs January | vs October |
World | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
United States | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
Euro Area | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
Germany | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.5 |
France | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
Italy | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
Spain | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Japan | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
United Kingdom | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Canada | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Emerging Markets | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
China | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.1 |
India | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Russia | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
Brazil | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
Mexico | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
Saudi Arabia | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.5 |
Nigeria | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
South Africa | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
Notes:
Figures in the annual estimates columns are annual percentage change in GDP.
Figures in the change columns are the net difference in percentage points of July's forecast vs prior forecasts.
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