Back-to-school spending expected to ease on tariff uncertainty, inflation, NRF data shows

July 15 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers could be more constrained in their back-to-school spending this year, with tariffs and inflation weighing on budgets, opting for more deals on electronics and apparel to stock up, data from a trade body showed on Tuesday.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

Consumer spending fell for a second month this year in May as President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs raised fears of higher prices for products such as apparel and electronics, while still-high inflation crimped household budgets.

Initial back-to-school data from the National Retail Federation showed that about half of the families surveyed were shopping earlier in 2025 compared to last year, fearing prices will be hiked soon due to tariffs.

BY THE NUMBERS

Spending per family with students in elementary through high school is expected to be down to $858.07 on average from $874.68 in 2024, NRF data shows.

Still, with the number of consumers expected to shop increasing, overall spending is touted to be $39.4 billion, up from $38.8 billion last year, according to the report.

College students are estimated to spend an average of $1,325.85 per family, down from $1,364.75 in 2024.

Electronics, clothing, shoes and school supplies remain the top categories. Most shoppers are buying products for the school season online, closely followed by department stores and discount outlets, the data shows.

CONTEXT

Some of the tariffs announced by Trump, such as those on China, Vietnam, Mexico and Canada, are already in effect, while levies on several other trading partners are set to take effect on August 1.

Back-to-school spending is also expected to dip this year according to a forecast by Deloitte, even as retailers such as Amazon AMZN.O, Walmart WMT.N and Target TGT.N ramp up discounts and promotional events to attract shoppers.

KEY QUOTE

"Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items and have turned to early shopping, discount stores and summer sales for savings on school essentials," NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said.

The increase in overall spending can be attributed to higher income households, while lower income households are pulling back across categories because of economic uncertainty, the report added.