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Traders stick bets Fed will wait until September to cut rates

ReutersJun 17, 2025 12:46 PM

- Futures contracts that settle to the Federal Reserve's policy rate on Tuesday stuck to bets the U.S. central bank will wait until September to resume interest rate cuts, after the Commerce Department reported retail sales fell more than expected last month.

Traders see only about a 13% chance of a rate cut by July, slightly less than before the report, and continue to price about a 65% probability of a rate cut by September, with another cut expected by December. The contracts reflect virtually no chance of a rate cut at the Fed's policy meeting this week.

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