FACTBOX-Some brokerages postpone Fed rate cut bets after resilience in US jobs data
May 5 (Reuters) - Major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and Barclays see a later start to the U.S. Federal Reserve's easing cycle after stronger-than-expected jobs report signaled resilience in the U.S. labor market as President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policy heightens economic uncertainty.
Data on Friday showed non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 jobs last month after rising by a downwardly revised 185,000 in March, while economists polled by Reuters forecast payrolls advancing by 130,000 jobs in April.
Barclays and Goldman Sachs said on Friday that they were expecting the central bank to deliver the next interest rate cut in July as compared to their previous forecast of a June cut.
Currently, traders, on average, expect rate cuts totaling 80 basis points for the year, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after non-farm payroll data:
Brokerage | Total cuts in 2025 | No. of cuts in 2025 | Fed Funds Rate |
Citigroup | 125 bps | 5 (starting in June) | 3.00-3.25% (end of 2025) |
J.P.Morgan | - | 25 bps in September | 3.3% (Q1 2026) |
Goldman Sachs | 75 bps | 3 (25 bps each starting in July) | 3.50-3.75%(through December) |
HSBC | 75 bps | 3 (25 bps each in June, September and December) | 3.50-3.75% (end of 2025) |
Wells Fargo | 75 bps | 3 (25 bps each in June, September and December) | 3.50-3.75% (end of 2025) |
Barclays | 50 bps | 2 (25 bps each in July and September) | 3.75-4.00% (end of 2025) |
ING | 50 bps | 2 (H2 2025) | 3.75-4.00% (end of 2025) |
Nomura | 25 bps | 1 (in December) | 4.00-4.25% (end of 2025) |
Morgan Stanley | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) |
Deutsche Bank | 25 bps | 1 (In December) | 4.00-4.25% (end of 2025) |
BofA Global Research | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
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