TABLE-IMF slashes global economic outlook as Trump trade war heats up
April 22 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slashed its 2025 economic outlook after U.S. President Donald Trump began his second term by kicking off a global trade war that is expected to weigh heavily on output around the world.
2025 estimates | April vs prior estimates | ||||||
April | January | October | July | vs January | vs October | vs July | |
World | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
United States | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | -0.9 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
Euro Area | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.7 |
Germany | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -1.3 |
France | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.7 |
Italy | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
Spain | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
Japan | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
United Kingdom | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
Canada | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
Emerging Markets | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.6 |
China | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
India | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
Russia | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Brazil | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 |
Mexico | -0.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | -1.7 | -1.6 | -1.9 |
Saudi Arabia | 3.0 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -1.7 |
Nigeria | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
South Africa | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
2026 estimates | April vs prior estimates | ||||
April | January | October | vs January | vs October | |
World | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
United States | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.0 | -0.4 | -0.3 |
Euro Area | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
Germany | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | -0.2 | -0.5 |
France | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
Italy | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
Spain | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Japan | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
United Kingdom | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Canada | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
Emerging Markets | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.2 | -0.4 | -0.3 |
China | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
India | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
Russia | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
Brazil | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
Mexico | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
Saudi Arabia | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.4 | -0.4 | -0.7 |
Nigeria | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
South Africa | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
Notes:
Figures in the annual estimates columns are annual percentage change in GDP.
Figures in the change columns are the net difference in percentage points of April's forecast vs prior forecasts.
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