FACTBOX-Some brokerages see more Fed rate cuts, recession risks after latest US tariffs
April 8 (Reuters) - Major brokerages including Goldman Sachs and J.P.Morgan see more rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve following President Donald Trump's latest tariffs.
Last week, Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the U.S. and higher duties on dozens of other countries, sparking fears of a global economic slowdown.
Following J.P.Morgan, Goldman Sachs raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 45% from 35% for this year amid a growing number of such predictions by investment banks fueled by the mounting tensions over tariff trade war.
Currently, traders on average expect rate cuts totaling 100 basis points for the year, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after latest tariffs:
Brokerage | Total cuts in 2025 | No. of cuts in 2025 | Fed Funds Rate |
Citigroup | 125 bps | 5 (starting in May) | 3.00-3.25% (end of 2025) |
J.P.Morgan | 125 bps | 5 (25 bps starting in June) | 2.75%-3.00% (in January 2026) |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 75-100bps | _ | |
Goldman Sachs | 75 bps | 3 (25 bps each starting in June) | 3.50-3.75%(through December) |
HSBC | 75 bps | 3 (25 bps each in June, September and December) | 3.50-3.75% (end of 2025) |
Wells Fargo | 75 bps | 3 (25 bps each in June, September and December) | 3.50-3.75% (end of 2025) |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 75 bps | 3 | 3.50%-3.75% (end of 2025) |
Barclays | 50 bps | 2 (25 bps each in June and September) | 3.75-4.00% (end of 2025) |
ING | 50 bps | 2 (H2 2025) | 3.75-4.00% (end of 2025) |
Nomura | 25 bps | 1 (in December) | 4.00-4.25% (end of 2025) |
Morgan Stanley | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) |
Deutsche Bank | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) |
Berenberg | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) |
BofA Global Research | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) |
RBC Capital Markets | - | 3 |
** Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
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