FACTBOX-Major brokerages see slower pace of Fed rate cuts amid Trump tariff uncertainty
March 28 (Reuters) - Major brokerages still expect a slower pace of interest-rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve ahead of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the central bank's preferred measure of inflation, due later in the day.
February's PCE numbers are anticipated to reveal a rebound in consumer spending and a rise in annual core PCE prices to 2.7%.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks set to take effect on April 3, forcing further uncertainty in U.S. financial markets.
Currently, traders expect two rate cuts of 25 basis points each for the year, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages before the inflation report:
Brokerage | Total cuts in 2025 | No. of cuts in 2025 | Fed Funds Rate |
Deutsche Bank | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) |
Morgan Stanley | 25 bps | 1 (25 bps in June) | 4.00-4.25% (in 2025) |
Goldman Sachs | 50 bps | 2 (25 bps each in June and December) | 3.75-4.00% (through December) |
J.P.Morgan | 50 bps | 2 (25 bps each in June and September) | 3.75-4.00% (through September 2025) |
Citigroup | 125bp | 5 (starting in May) | 3.00-3.25% (end of 2025) |
Barclays | 50 bps | 2 (25 bps each in June and September) | 3.75-4.00% (through September) |
Berenberg | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) |
Nomura | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) |
HSBC | 75 bps | 3 (25 bps each in June, September and December) | 3.50-3.75% (end of 2025) |
ING | 50 bps | 2 (H2 2025) | 3.75-4.00% (end of 2025) |
Wells Fargo | 75 bps | 3 (25 bps each in June, September and December) | 3.50-3.75% (end of 2025) |
BofA Global Research | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) |
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