FACTBOX-Major brokerages continue to expect slower pace of Fed rate cuts after payrolls data
March 10 (Reuters) - Major Wall Street brokerages backed their predictions for a slower pace of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, after data showed the U.S. economy created fewer jobs than expected in February and as President Donald Trump's tariff announcements add to economic uncertainty.
Data on Friday showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 jobs last month after rising by a downwardly revised 125,000 in January, while economists polled by Reuters forecast payrolls advancing by 160,000 in February.
President Trump's tariff policy is expected to drive up inflation and increase pressure on the U.S. central bank as it looks to control persistently high prices.
Currently, traders expect nearly three rate cuts of 25 basis points each for the year, according to data compiled by LSEG.
The Fed left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range in its January policy meeting, with Chair Jerome Powell saying there would be no rush to cut them again until inflation and jobs data made it appropriate.
Here are the forecasts from brokerages after jobs data on Friday:
| Rate cut estimates (in bps) | ||||
Brokerages | Mar 2025 | 2025 | No. of cuts in 2025 | Fed Funds Rate | |
BofA Global Research | No rate cut | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of December) | |
Barclays | No rate cut | 25 (in June) | 1 | 4.00-4.25% (end of 2025) | |
Goldman Sachs | No rate cut | 50 (June and December) | 2 | 3.75-4.00% (through December) | |
J.P.Morgan | No rate cut | 50(June and September) | - | 3.75-4.00% (through September 2025) | |
Morgan Stanley | No rate cut | 25 (in June) | 1 | 4.00-4.25% (in 2025) | |
Deutsche Bank | No rate cut | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) | |
ING | No rate cut | 50 (H2 2025) | 2 | 3.75-4.00% (end of 2025) | |
Citigroup | No rate cut | 125 (starting in May) | 5 | 3.00-3.25% (end of 2025) | |
Macquarie | No rate cut | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) | |
Berenberg | No rate cut | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) | |
Wells Fargo | No rate cut | 50 (September and December) | 2 | 3.75-4.00% (end of 2025) | |
Nomura | No rate cut | No rate cut | 0 | - | |
HSBC | No rate cut | 75 (starting in June) | 3 | 3.50-3.75% (end of 2025) | |
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