FACTBOX-Brokerages scale back predictions for 2025 Fed cuts after payrolls data
Adds BNP view
By Chuck Mikolajczak
Jan 13 (Reuters) - Several major brokerages have tempered their predictions for how much the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in 2025, if at all, after a surprisingly strong U.S. employment report on Friday pointed to resilient economic growth.
At least one brokerage, BofA Global Research, said in a note it thought the easing cycle was over and it was likely the Fed would hold for an extended period. "But we think the risks for the next move are skewed toward a hike."
After cutting rates by a quarter of a percentage point at the Dec. 17-18 meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers could now be "cautious" about further reductions.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025 after the jobs report:
Rate cut estimates (in bps) | ||||
Brokerages | Jan 2025 | 2025 | Fed Funds Rate | |
BofA Global Research | No rate cut | No rate cut | 4.25-4.50%(end of December) | |
Barclays | No rate cut | 25 (in June) | 4.00-4.25% (end of 2025) | |
BNP Paribas | No rate cut | No rate cut | - | |
Goldman Sachs | No rate cut | 50 (June and December) | 3.75-4.00% (through December) | |
J.P.Morgan | No rate cut | 75(starting in June) | 3.50-3.75% (through September 2025) | |
Morgan Stanley | No rate cut | 50 (through June 2025) | 3.75-4.00% (through June 2025) | |
Deutsche Bank | No rate cut | No Rate Cuts | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) | |
ING | No rate cut | 75 | 3.50-3.75% | |
UBS Global Wealth Management | No rate cut | 50 | 3.75-4.00% (end of 2025) | |
Citigroup | No rate cut | 125 (starting in May) | 3.00-3.25% (end of 2025) | |
Macquarie | No rate cut | 25 | 4.00-4.25% | |
Berenberg | No rate cut | No rate cut | 4.25-4.50% (end of 2025) | |
Scotiabank | No rate cut | 50 | 3.75-4.00% (end of 2025) | |
Wells Fargo | No rate cut | - | - | |
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025 before the jobs report:
Rate cut estimates (in bps) | ||||
Brokerages | Jan 2025 | 2025 | Fed Funds Rate | |
BofA Global Research | No rate cut | 50 | 3.75-4.00% (end of June) | |
Barclays | No rate cut | 50 | 3.75-4.00% (end of 2025) | |
Goldman Sachs | No rate cut | 75 (through September 2025) | 3.50-3.75% (through September 2025) | |
J.P.Morgan | No rate cut | 75(through September 2025) | 3.50-3.75% (through September 2025) | |
Morgan Stanley | No rate cut | 50 (through June 2025) | 3.75-4.00% (through June 2025) | |
Nomura | No rate cut | 25 | 4.00-4.25% (through end of 2025) | |
*UBS Global Research | No rate cut | 125 | 3.00-3.25% (through end of 2025) | |
Deutsche Bank | No rate cut | No Rate Cuts | 4.25-4.50% | |
Societe Generale | No rate cut | - | 3.00-3.25% (by early 2026) | |
ING | No rate cut | 75 | 3.75 - 4.00% | |
Macquarie | No rate cut | 25 | 4.00-4.25% | |
UBS Global Wealth Management | No rate cut | 50 | 3.75-4.00% (end of 2025) | |
Peel Hunt | No rate cut | 50 | 3.50-4.00% | |
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Alden Bentley, Shinjini Ganguli, Maju Samuel, Devika Syamnath, Anil D'Silva, Shounak Dasgupta and Diane Craft)
((alden.bentley@thomsonreuters.com))
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