FACTBOX-Most brokerages expect Fed to hold rates steady in January meeting
Rewrites throughout
Jan 10 (Reuters) - Major brokerages, including BofA and Goldman Sachs, expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in the upcoming January meeting, although a non-farm payrolls (NFP) report later on Friday was expected to offer more clues on the central bank's monetary policy for the year.
After cutting rates by a quarter of a percentage point at the Dec. 17-18 meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers could now be "cautious" about further reductions.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025:
Rate cut estimates (in bps) | ||||
Brokerages | Jan 2025 | 2025 | Fed Funds Rate | |
BofA Global Research | No rate cut | 50 | 3.75-4.00% (end of June) | |
Barclays | No rate cut | 50 | 3.75-4.00% (end of 2025) | |
Goldman Sachs | No rate cut | 75 (through September 2025) | 3.50-3.75% (through September 2025) | |
J.P.Morgan | No rate cut | 75(through September 2025) | 3.50-3.75% (through September 2025) | |
Morgan Stanley | No rate cut | 50 (through June 2025) | 3.75-4.00% (through June 2025) | |
Nomura | No rate cut | 25 | 4.00-4.25% (through end of 2025) | |
*UBS Global Research | No rate cut | 125 | 3.00-3.25% (through end of 2025) | |
Deutsche Bank | No rate cut | No Rate Cuts | 4.25-4.50% | |
Societe Generale | No rate cut | - | 3.00-3.25% (by early 2026) | |
ING | No rate cut | 75 | 3.75 - 4.00% | |
Macquarie | No rate cut | 25 | 4.00-4.25% | |
UBS Global Wealth Management | No rate cut | 50 | 3.75-4.00% (end of 2025) | |
Peel Hunt | No rate cut | 50 | 3.50-4.00% | |
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Shinjini Ganguli, Maju Samuel, Shounak Dasgupta, Devika Syamnath and Anil D'Silva)
((siddarth.s@thomsonreuters.com))
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