FACTBOX-Most brokerages expect Fed to hold rates steady in January meeting
Updates with Morgan Stanley's rate cut estimates
Dec 30 (Reuters) - Major brokerages, including BofA and Goldman Sachs, expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in the upcoming January meeting, after the central bank delivered a quarter-percentage-point cut in December.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said more reductions in borrowing costs now hinge on further progress in lowering stubbornly high inflation. His remarks indicated policymakers were starting to consider the prospects for sweeping economic changes under a Trump administration.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025:
Rate cut estimates (in bps) | ||||
Brokerages | Jan 2025 | 2025 | Fed Funds Rate | |
BofA Global Research | No rate cut | 50 | 3.75%-4.00% (end of June) | |
Barclays | No rate cut | 50 | 3.75%-4.00% (end of 2025) | |
Goldman Sachs | No rate cut | 75 (through September 2025) | 3.50%-3.75% (through September 2025) | |
J.P.Morgan | No rate cut | 75(through September 2025) | 3.75% (through September 2025) | |
Morgan Stanley | No rate cut | 50 (through June 2025) | 3.75%-4.00% (through June 2025) | |
Nomura | No rate cut | 25 | 4.00%-4.25% (through end of 2025) | |
*UBS Global Research | No rate cut | 125 | 3.00%-3.25% (through end of 2025) | |
Deutsche Bank | No rate cut | No Rate Cuts | 4.25%-4.50% | |
Societe Generale | No rate cut | - | 3.00%-3.25% (by early 2026) | |
ING | No rate cut | 75 | 3.75% - 4.00% | |
Macquarie | No rate cut | 25 | 4.00%-4.25% | |
UBS Global Wealth Management | No rate cut | 50 | 3.75%-4.00% (end of 2025) | |
Peel Hunt | No rate cut | 50 | 3.50%-4.00% | |
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Shinjini Ganguli, Maju Samuel, Shounak Dasgupta and Devika Syamnath)
((siddarth.s@thomsonreuters.com))
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