US natural gas futures hit six-week high as output declines
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a six-week high on Wednesday on forecasts for more demand than previously expected and a continued decline in output in recent days.
Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.1 cents, or 2.8%, to $2.924 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since March 27.
In the cash market, average gas prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 68 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
In the West, mild weather and ample hydropower supplies cut next-day power prices at the Mid Columbia hub W-MIDCP-IDX in Oregon to their lowest since June 2022 and pushed spot power at South Path 15 W-SP15-IDX in Southern California into negative territory for a ninth time so far this year.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 3.8 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary 15-week low of 106.4 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to declines in Texas and Louisiana. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Output has fallen in recent weeks as low spot prices caused some energy firms, like EQT EQT.N, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to reduce production as they wait for prices to rise in the future.
Analysts said mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this year.
But, they noted, recent output declines coupled with higher demand from near-normal weather likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 6% above normal during the week ended May 7, down from 7% above during the week ended May 1. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 28.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 98.9 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.2 bcfd so far in May due in part to maintenance at several plants, including Freeport LNG in Texas and Cameron LNG in Louisiana.
| Week ended May 8 Actual | Week ended May 1 Actual | Year ago May 8 | Five-year average (2021-2025) May 8 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +79 | +63 | +109 | +84 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,284 | 2,205 | 2,239 | 2,150 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.2% | +6.7% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.83 | 2.84 | 3.46 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 16.04 | 15.99 | 11.68 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 16.99 | 16.95 | 11.83 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 41 | 42 | 60 | 61 | 59 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 106 | 104 | 93 | 84 | 81 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 147 | 146 | 153 | 145 | 140 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.5 | 109.1 | 109.9 | 105.6 | 100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 6.4 | 6.8 | 6.7 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 115.9 | 115.9 | 116.6 | N/A | 107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | N/A | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 7.4 | 7.0 | N/A | 6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 17.0 | 16.8 | 17.2 | 15.3 | 12.9 |
U.S. Commercial | 6.5 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.9 |
U.S. Residential | 7.3 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.1 | 30.7 | 32.5 | 32.4 | 30.6 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.6 | 22.1 | 21.7 | 22.2 | 22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 72.9 | 72.1 | 71.7 | 71.7 | 73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.4 | 99.0 | 98.7 | N/A | 94.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 90 | 90 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 93 | 93 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 98 | 98 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended May 15 | Week ended May 8 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 11 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 11 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 37 | 35 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 13 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 20 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.91 | 2.82 | 3.12 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.10 | 2.12 | 2.35 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.60 | 1.70 | 2.89 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.00 | 1.99 | 2.25 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.50 | 2.38 | 2.86 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.38 | 2.50 | 2.82 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.27 | 2.37 | 2.98 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -2.87 | -3.87 | 1.34 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.18 | 1.23 | 1.32 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 45.20 | 44.19 | 40.31 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 42.63 | 43.70 | 43.04 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX | 1.45 | 37.06 | 39.90 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 16.20 | 44.37 | 29.10 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX | -1.09 | 19.03 | 17.36 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
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