Japan's Inpex raises full-year profit forecast as oil prices climb

By Yuka Obayashi

TOKYO, May 13 (Reuters) - Japan's biggest oil and gas explorer Inpex 1605.T on Wednesday raised its full-year net profit forecast, citing higher expected crude oil prices and a weaker yen amid the Middle East crisis.

Inpex revised its annual net profit forecast for 2026 to a range of 350 billion yen to 450 billion yen ($2.2 billion-$2.9 billion), from a previous estimate of 330 billion yen. The revised outlook implies an 11% drop to a 14% increase from the previous year.

"We adopted a range-based outlook due to uncertainty over the Middle East conflict," Senior Managing Executive Officer Daisuke Yamada told reporters.

Inpex raised its assumption for average Brent crude oil prices to $70-$83 per barrel from a previous estimate of $63, while revising its dollar/yen assumption to 154-156 yen from 151 yen.

Due to lower crude output in Abu Dhabi following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Inpex, which holds stakes in several oil fields there, cut its annual production forecast to 630,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day on an equity interest basis from 655,000 barrels projected in February.

For the January-March quarter, net profit fell 13.5% from a year earlier to 109.4 billion yen, hurt by lower selling prices.

Before the Iran war began in February, Japan relied on the Middle East for 95% of its crude imports. The effective closure of the Strait has forced Japan to seek alternatives.

"Our policy remains to prioritise energy supplies to Japanese buyers," Senior Executive Vice President Toshiaki Takimoto said, adding that the company was also committed to actively supplying core markets including Australia and Southeast Asia.

Condensate from its Ichthys liquefied natural gas project in Australia was shipped to Japan on a priority basis, while crude from an Azerbaijani oil field was also diverted to Japan after the Iran war erupted, Takimoto said.

Inpex expects Ichthys to ship an average of about 10 cargoes per month in 2026.

Regarding a possible industrial action at Ichthys, Yamada said: "We will engage in sincere discussions with the Ichthys labour union to prevent a major strike."

($1 = 157.7900 yen)