INSTANT VIEW-USDA projects smallest US wheat harvest since 1972

CHICAGO, May 12 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat production for the 2026/27 marketing year is expected to fall to 1.561 billion bushels, the smallest level since 1972/73, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday. The figure fell below a range of trade expectations and sent Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures Wv1 rising by their 45-cent daily maximum.

Highlights:

USDA May crop supply/demand report summary nL1N41P0Y7

USDA projects bumper 2026 US soy harvest nL6N41P16R

Trade estimates for corn, soy production nL4N41J2NK

Trade estimates for U.S. ending stocks nL4N41J2KK

Trade estimates for U.S. wheat production nL4N41J2N9

Trade estimates for world crop end-stocks nL4N41J2LM

Trade estimates for South American crops nL4N41J2N1

COMMENTS:

JACK SCOVILLE, VICE PRESIDENT, PRICE FUTURES GROUP:

"Wheat is the biggest story here, for sure. The magnitude of USDA's cuts to wheat production was a surprise because we have a saying here in Chicago: Wheat's a weed. It usually hangs in there better (during drought)."

"USDA cut the ending stocks back for both corn and soybeans. While I think the corn seems to be fairly reasonable, we're already hearing about U.S. soybean yields could be a record this year. So I think those soybean ending stocks could be underestimated."

SHERMAN NEWLIN, ANALYST WITH RISK MANAGEMENT COMMODITIES:

"We expected wheat numbers to be low but they're below expectations, especially for the hard red winter wheat areas.... We've got the (Kansas) crop tour going on, and we'll have to see what that says. I've got clients out west in Colorado and Kansas. Their wheat has been adjusted to zero or one bushel. That's how we figured wheat wasn't going to be good."

JIM McCORMICK, CHIEF OPERATING OFFICE, AGMARKET.NET:

"That hard red (winter) wheat crop, we knew it was beat up. The government was relatively aggressive (in) cutting that crop. This (U.S.) wheat supply was a lot less than what the trade was thinking. Hence, you're getting a massive (futures) move higher on it."

DON ROOSE, PRESIDENT OF U.S. COMMODITIES:

"The wheat market is bullish, but it's a matter of how much was already dialed into the market. It (USDA's report) was positive on all wheat."

"Next year on the demand side for beans was a surprise, that the government took crush up. I think the data point that stuck out to me most is next year's demand. They're taking (soybean) crush up 120 million (bushels) higher, which is a strong crush."

CRAIG TURNER, RISK MANAGEMENT CONSULTANT WITH STONEX:

"The big takeaways on this report are wheat, which is why it's the upside leader in the markets. That carry-out is starting to get tight, USDA brought down the yield, and the K.C. wheat is getting hurt the most on the most recent (weekly) conditions report."

"On the soybean side, the report was actually a little bullish on those ending stocks, (compared) to where we thought we would be at."

ARLAN SUDERMAN, CHIEF COMMODITIES ECONOMIST WITH STONEX:

"USDA dumped a lot of data today, but the key numbers included the smallest winter wheat crop in more than a half century, with the winter wheat crop coming in 154 million bushels below the average trade guess. That dropped the projected 2026-27 wheat ending stocks estimate to 762 million bushels, down from 935 million bushels this year."