HSBC raises 2026 Brent price forecast to $95 per barrel
May 12 (Reuters) - HSBC raised its 2026 average Brent price forecast to $95 a barrel last week, citing a longer effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
"Our base case now assumes that Hormuz traffic and Gulf output gradually restart from mid‑June, and a return to near‑normal system-level production and flows by end‑3Q26," HSBC said in a note dated May 6.
It added that a longer disruption implies larger inventory drawdowns, a more challenging post‑war refill, and a higher residual risk premium, supporting a higher long‑term price anchor.
In HSBC's scenario-based assumptions, the bank sees Brent averaging around $110 a barrel in 2026 and $85 a barrel in 2027 if a deal is only reached towards late summer but oil prices periodically correct on headlines.
The bank said that in a "pessimistic" scenario where a comprehensive deal takes around six months, leaving flows heavily constrained, Brent would average $120 per barrel in 2026 and $95 per barrel in 2027.
Oil prices rose by more than 3% on Tuesday as stark differences between the U.S. and Iran on a proposal to end the war in the Middle East pushed supply concerns back into the spotlight. O/R
Brokerage/Agency | Brent | WTI | Forecasts as of | Price Targets | ||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | 2027 |
|
|
Goldman Sachs | $90 ($83 previously) | $85 ($80 previously) | $83 ($78 previously) | $80 ($75 previously) | April 26, 2026 | Raises 4Q 2026 Brent, WTI forecast to $90/$83 |
Citi | $91 | $75 | $83 | $70 | April 26, 2026 | Raises Brent price forecast to $110/bbl in Q2'26, $95/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
ANZ | $92 | $76 | $88 | $76 | April 9, 2026 |
|
UBS | - | - | - | - | April 13, 2026 | Expects prices to trade >$150/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted. Sees Brent at $100/bbl by end-June 2026, $95 by end-Sept, $90 by end-Dec |
Macquarie | $89.28 | $74.50 | $82.93 | $70.50 | March 27 | If the war continues until end of June, oil prices may rise to $200
|
Morgan Stanley | - | $80 ($70 previously) | - | - | March 24, 2026 | Expects Brent prices to remain above $80/bbl for the rest of 2026 |
J.P. Morgan | - | $72 | - | - | March 20, 2026 | Expects Brent prices averaging $100/bbl in Q2'26, $90/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
Standard Chartered | $85.50 ($70 previously) |
|
|
|
| Expects Brent to average $78/bbl in Q1'26, and $98/bbl in Q2'26 |
BofA | $77.50 ($61 previously) | $66 ($62 previously) | - | $61 ($59 previously) | March 16, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26, but average $76/bbl in Q3'26 |
Barclays | $100 (from $85 previously) | - | - | - | May 1 | If the current situation continues through the end of May, forward-implied 2026 Brent should reprice to $110/b |
BMI | $70 ($67 previously) | $70 | $68 | $68 | March 12, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26, respectively. |
HSBC | $95 ($80 previously) | $75 ($70 previously) | - | - | May 06, 2026 |
|
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