Canada's Pembina Pipeline beats Q1 adjusted EBITDA estimates, ups FY forecast

Overview

• Canada energy infrastructure firm's Q1 adjusted EBITDA fell but beat analyst expectations

• Company raised its quarterly common share dividend by about 3.5%

• Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance raised on stronger commodity prices and marketing business

Outlook

• Pembina raises 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to C$4.35 bln–C$4.55 bln from C$4.125 bln–C$4.425 bln

• Company says revised outlook reflects stronger marketing business and exposure to premium propane prices in Asia

• Pembina expects 2026 current income tax expense of C$385 mln–C$420 mln

Result Drivers

• MARKETING & NGL PRICES - Lower contribution from Marketing & New Ventures division due to narrower NGL frac spreads and lower NGL prices

• PIPELINE TOLL STRUCTURE - Lower net revenue on Alliance Pipeline due to new toll structure and revenue sharing mechanism, partly offset by higher interruptible and seasonal revenue

• FACILITIES VOLUME GROWTH - Higher contribution from certain PGI assets in Facilities division due to increased volumes

Company press release: ID:nBwtd27ma

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 10 "strong buy" or "buy", 6 "hold" and 1 "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the oil & gas transportation services peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Pembina Pipeline Corp is C$64.00, about 4.7% above its May 6 closing price of C$61.15

• The stock recently traded at 21 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 20 three months ago

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