Harley-Davidson Q1 revenue beats estimates on North America retail growth

Overview

• Motorcycle maker's Q1 revenue fell 12% yr/yr but beat analyst expectations

• Diluted EPS for Q1 dropped 79% yr/yr to $0.22

• Company repurchased $128 mln of shares in Q1

Outlook

• Company reaffirms 2026 guidance for HDMC global retail sales of 130,000 to 135,000 units

• Harley-Davidson expects 2026 HDMC operating income of a $40 mln loss to a $10 mln profit

• Company sees 2026 HDFS operating income of $45 mln to $60 mln

Result Drivers

• NORTH AMERICA RETAIL GROWTH - Co said 14% increase in North America retail motorcycle sales drove global retail sales growth

• WHOLESALE SHIPMENTS & PRICING - Revenue was down due to lower wholesale shipments and the net effect of global pricing and sales incentives, partially offset by favorable foreign currency

• TARIFFS & PRODUCT MIX - Gross margin declined due to new or increased tariffs, pricing and sales incentives, and unfavorable product mix, partially offset by a favorable EU court judgment and currency

• HDFS LOAN PORTFOLIO REDUCTION - Financial services revenue fell 54% due to lower retail and wholesale finance receivables after a loan asset sale in 2025

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "hold" and the breakdown of recommendations is 5 "strong buy" or "buy", 9 "hold" and 3 "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the auto & truck manufacturers peer group is "buy."

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Harley-Davidson Inc is $23.00, about 0.9% below its May 4 closing price of $23.21

• The stock recently traded at 31 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 10 three months ago

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