US natural gas futures climb as output falls and LNG exports surge
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a fresh three-week high on Friday on a drop in output over the past month and near-record liquefied natural gas exports.
Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.7 cents, or 1.3%, to $2.804 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since April 7 for a second day in a row.
For the week, the front-month was up about 2% after gaining about 10% last week.
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 60 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 69 times so far this year.
Waha prices have averaged a negative $2.17 per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive $1.15 in 2025 and a positive $2.88 over the past five years (2021 to 2025).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in April, down from 110.4 bcfd in March and a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output was down even more, on track to start May at a preliminary 108.6 bcfd on Friday as low spot prices prompted energy firms like EQT EQT.N, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to temporarily reduce production. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day.
Analysts said mostly mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual. They noted, however, that recent output declines coupled with cooler weather and higher demand likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 7% above normal during the week ended May 1, down from 8% above during the week ended April 24. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 16.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 103.2 bcfd this week to 100.0 bcfd next week and 99.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next week were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to a monthly record of 18.8 bcfd in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March and the prior all-time high of 18.7 bcfd in February.
| Week ended May 1 Forecast | Week ended April 24 Actual | Year ago May 1 | Five-year average (2021-2025) May 1 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +72 | +79 | +104 | +77 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,214 | 2,142 | 2,130 | 2,066 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +7.2% | +7.7% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.79 | 2.77 | 3.46 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 16.03 | 15.83 | 11.68 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 16.91 | 16.97 | 11.83 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 99 | 110 | 75 | 102 | 88 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 55 | 50 | 54 | 56 | 58 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 154 | 160 | 129 | 158 | 146 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.2 | 108.5 | 108.3 | 105.3 | 100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.8 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 115.9 | 115.3 | 115.1 | N/A | 107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | N/A | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.4 | N/A | 6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.7 | 18.1 | 17.9 | 15.8 | 12.9 |
U.S. Commercial | 7.2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.9 |
U.S. Residential | 8.6 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.4 | 31.7 | 29.3 | 30.9 | 30.6 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.9 | 22.4 | 22.6 | 22.4 | 22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 75.5 | 76.2 | 73.2 | 73.6 | 73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 103.4 | 103.2 | 100.0 | N/A | 94.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 91 | 92 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 95 | 95 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 99 | 99 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended May 1 | Week ended Apr 24 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 13 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 8 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 39 | 35 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 14 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.64 | 2.60 | 3.12 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.08 | 2.05 | 2.35 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.25 | 1.16 | 2.89 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.00 | 1.97 | 2.25 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.44 | 2.42 | 2.86 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.75 | 2.33 | 2.82 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.88 | 1.91 | 2.98 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -3.01 | -2.89 | 1.34 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.90 | 0.79 | 1.32 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 44.29 | 49.17 | 40.31 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 47.19 | 54.30 | 43.04 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX | 15.00 | 15.00 | 39.90 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 19.00 | 19.00 | 29.10 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX | 2.50 | 2.50 | 17.36 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
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