National Fuel Gas Q2 adjusted EPS rises but trims 2026 profit outlook

Overview

• US natural gas utility and producer's fiscal Q2 adjusted EPS rose 13% from prior year

• Company revised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance downward, citing lower gas price assumptions

• Higher realized gas prices boosted results, but production volumes fell due to weather delays

Outlook

• Company lowers FY 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.45-$7.75

• Company now assumes NYMEX natural gas price will average $3.00 per MMBtu for remainder of FY 2026

• Integrated Upstream and Gathering FY 2026 production expected at 425-440 Bcf, down from prior guidance

Result Drivers

• HIGHER REALIZED GAS PRICES - Co said a 17% increase in realized natural gas prices drove adjusted earnings growth in Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment

• LOWER PRODUCTION VOLUMES - Co said weather-driven completion delays and typical declines on producing wells led to a 3% decrease in natural gas production

• UTILITY RATE INCREASES - Higher customer margin in Utility segment attributed to new rates in New York and system improvement charges in Pennsylvania

Company press release: ID:nGNXbw9d5m

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 3 "strong buy" or "buy", 2 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the natural gas utilities peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for National Fuel Gas Co is $106.00, about 20.4% above its April 29 closing price of $88.07

• The stock recently traded at 11 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 10 three months ago

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