US natural gas futures edge up 1% as output drops, LNG exports surge
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, April 27 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Monday from a 17-month low in the prior session, boosted by a drop in output in recent weeks, lifted demand forecasts for this week and near-record liquefied natural gas exports.
On its second-to-last day as the front-month contract, gas futures for May delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.7 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $2.55 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract notched its lowest close since October 29, 2024.
Futures for June NGM26, soon to be the front-month contract, were up about 2% to $2.74 per mmBtu.
In the cash market, some power and gas prices in Texas NG-WAH-WTX-SNL and California W-SP15-IDX traded in negative territory for a third straight week as mild weather limited heating and cooling demand, which was met by ample amounts of hydro and other renewable sources of energy.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has eased to 110.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 110.4 bcfd in March. That figure compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025.
Daily output was on track to drop by around 0.7 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary 108.8 bcfd on Monday as low spot prices prompted energy firms like EQT EQT.N, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to cut production. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day.
Analysts said mostly mild weather this spring has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual, boosting inventories to a forecast 8% above normal levels during the week ended April 24 from 7% above normal during the week ended April 17. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 12.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 102.0 bcfd this week to 100.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.9 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February.
| Week ended April 24 Forecast | Week ended April 17 Actual | Year ago April 24 | Five-year average (2021-2025) April 24 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +81 | +103 | +105 | +63 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,144 | 2,063 | 2,026 | 1,989 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +7.8% | +7.1% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.57 | 2.52 | 3.43 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 15.27 | 15.19 | 11.48 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 16.55 | 16.39 | 12.23 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 114 | 119 | 75 | 102 | 99 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 45 | 48 | 54 | 56 | 51 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 159 | 167 | 129 | 158 | 150 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.2 | 109.3 | 109.7 | 105.3 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.4 | N/A | 7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 115.9 | 1157 | 116.1 | N/A | 107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | N/A | 2.5 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.3 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.7 | 18.4 | 18.5 | 15.8 | 13.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 7.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 8.6 |
U.S. Residential | 8.6 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 11.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.4 | 30.6 | 28.5 | 30.9 | 27.2 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.9 | 22.7 | 23.0 | 22.4 | 23.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 75.5 | 74.9 | 73.1 | 73.6 | 79.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 103.4 | 102.0 | 100.1 | N/A | 100.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 92 | 91 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 95 | 95 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 99 | 99 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended May 1 | Week ended Apr 24 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 14 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 9 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 36 | 35 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 13 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.54 | 2.65 | 3.41 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.96 | 1.97 | 2.81 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.16 | 1.18 | 2.63 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SN | 1.80 | 1.87 | 2.69 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.25 | 2.22 | 3.03 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.12 | 2.06 | 3.15 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.97 | 1.97 | 2.94 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -8.74 | -7.05 | 1.38 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.91 | 0.91 | 1.60 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 49.00 | 43.08 | 42.26 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West | 57.75 | 75.70 | 50.50 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 8.58 | 4.61 | 26.45 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 8.90 | 4.25 | 25.26 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | -1.77 | -2.80 | 9.76 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
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