US forecaster expects ENSO‑neutral to continue, El Nino risk builds

April 9 (Reuters) - El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions emerged last month, and there is an 80% chance they will continue from April to June as La Nina transitions toward El Nino, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

The U.S. weather forecaster added that El Nino has a 61% chance of developing between May and June 2026 and is expected to persist through at least the end of 2026.

"El Nino is likely because of increasing subsurface temperature anomalies and recent westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean," the CPC added.

• El Nino is a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

• El Nino results in unusually warmer water temperatures, increasing the chance of floods and drought, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

• Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather, said a strong El Nino is possible, resulting in cooler and wetter conditions in the Midwest this summer, which would be favorable for corn and soybeans.

• "It would also equate to wetter conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina, which would be favorable for corn and soybeans there next season," Keeney said.

• "Indonesia should be drier than usual as El Nino develops. Also, a cooling of water temperatures off western Indonesia, in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean, will contribute to drier conditions this spring and summer," said Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather.

• India is expected to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026, private weather forecaster Skymet said on Tuesday, citing El Nino-driven declines in precipitation in the latter half of the June–September rainy season.

• Sucafina's weather strategist Greg Oddo said that a potential impact from unfavorable weather to tropical crops such as coffee and cocoa is likely in first quarter of 2027.