US natural gas futures fall due to lower global energy prices, mild weather
April 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged down on Wednesday, in step with a drop in global energy prices and on expectations that mild weather would squeeze demand, as traders also continued to monitor the Middle East war.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.3%, to settle at $2.819 per million British thermal units. In the previous session, the contract dropped to its lowest level since February 26.
"This market continues to swing in relatively close tandem with the large fluctuations in oil prices," Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
The front-month Brent oil contract for June LCOc1 was down $1.85, or 1.8%, to $102.12 per barrel at 1414 GMT, off a session low of $98.35. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May CLc1 slipped $1.07, or around 1.1%, to $100.31 per barrel, after falling to $96.50 earlier. O/R
Crude prices slid after U.S. President Donald Trump again suggested the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could be nearing an end.
"With the gas futures seeing limited support from the weather factor, we see this market as more reactive to large oil price downswings than to upswings," Ritterbusch and Associates said.
Traders await release on Thursday of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly gas storage report. EIA/GAS
U.S. energy firms are expected to have injected about 33 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage for the week ended March 27, according to early estimates from a Reuters poll. If accurate, inventories would rise to around 1,925 bcf, compared with a five‑year average of 1,811 bcf, according to a survey conducted by Reuters.
March is part of the winter season when utilities usually pull gas from storage to meet heating demand. Still, mild weather has allowed energy firms to start injecting gas into storage.
Financial firm LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 107.8 bcfd this week to 106.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Benchmark Dutch and British wholesale gas prices fell on Wednesday on hopes that the war could end soon. NG/EU
| Week ended Mar 27 Forecasts | Week ended Mar 20 Actual | Year ago Mar 20 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 20 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +33 | -54 | +33 | -21 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,925 | 1,829 | 1,739 | 1,815 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.3% | +0.8% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.86 | 2.85 | N/A | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 16.47 | 17.18 | N/A | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 20.130 | 20.53 | N/A | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 158 | 143 | 197 | 207 | 215 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 35 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 11 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 193 | 177 | 214 | 224 | 226 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.9 | 110.4 | 110.7 | 106.8 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.3 | 6.7 | 6.5 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 205.1 | 117.2 | 117.3 | N/A | 108.0 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.9 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.7 | 18.8
| 18.5 | 16.1 | 13.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 9.0 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 12.1 |
U.S. Residential | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 13.9 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.3 | 28.9 | 27.7 | 29.6 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.1 | 23.2 | 23.4 | 23.6 | 24.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 81.1 | 80.3 | 79.3 | 84.9 | 96.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 192.5 | 107.8 | 106.8 | N/A | 118.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 96 | 98 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 100 | 101 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 103 | 104 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended Mar 27 | Week ended Mar 20 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 16 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 34 | 34 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 13 | 12 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 18 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
| 2.88 | N/A | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
| 1.93 | N/A | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
| 1.56 | N/A | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
| 1.81 | N/A | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
| 2.26 | N/A | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
| 2.05 | N/A | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
| 2.10 | N/A | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
| -3.59 | N/A | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
| 1.51 | N/A | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
| 36.09 | N/A | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
| 2.84 | N/A | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
| 22.96 | N/A | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
| 31.77 | N/A | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
| 25.08 | N/A | 28.44 | 53.02 |
