US natural gas futures fall due to lower global energy prices, mild weather

ReutersApr 1, 2026 2:49 PM

April 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged down on Wednesday in step with a drop in global energy prices and expectations that mild weather would lead to lower demand, as traders continued to keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East war.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded 5.2 cents lower, or 1.8%, to $2.83 per million British thermal units at 10:06 a.m. EST. The contract dropped to its lowest level since February 26 in the previous session.

"This market continues to swing in relatively close tandem with the large fluctuations in oil prices," Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

The front-month Brent oil contract for June LCOc1 was down $1.85, or 1.8%, to $102.12 per barrel at 1414 GMT, having dropped to a session low of $98.35. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May CLc1 slipped $1.07, or around 1.1%, to $100.31 per barrel, after falling to $96.50 earlier. O/R

Uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East continued to unnerve markets, as U.S. President Donald Trump again suggested the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could be nearing an end, resulting in the slide in crude prices.

"With the gas futures seeing limited support from the weather factor, we see this market as more reactive to large oil price downswings than to upswings," Ritterbusch and Associates said.

Traders are awaiting the release on Thursday of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly gas storage report. EIA/GAS

U.S. energy firms are expected to have injected about 33 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage for the week ended March 27, according to early estimates from a Reuters poll. If accurate, inventories would rise to around 1,925 bcf, compared with a five‑year average of 1,811 bcf, according to a survey conducted by Reuters.

Even though March is part of the winter season when utilities usually pull gas from storage to meet heating demand, mostly mild weather in recent weeks has allowed energy firms to start injecting gas into storage.

Financial firm LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 107.8 bcfd this week to 106.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Benchmark Dutch and British wholesale gas prices fell on Wednesday on hopes that the war could end soon. NG/EU

	Week ended Mar 27 Forecasts	Week ended Mar 20 Actual	Year ago Mar 20	Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 20
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+33	-54	+33	-21
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	1,925	1,829	1,739	1,815
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.3%	+0.8%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.86	2.85	N/A	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	16.47	17.18	N/A	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	20.130	20.53	N/A	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	158	143	197	207	215
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	35	34	17	17	11
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	193	177	214	224	226

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.9	110.4	110.7	106.8	99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.3	6.7	6.5	N/A	8.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	205.1	117.2	117.3	N/A	108.0

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.9	3.5	2.9	N/A	3.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.3	5.2	6.2	N/A	5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.7	18.8	18.5	16.1	13.2
U.S. Commercial	9.0	8.8	8.8	9.8	12.1
U.S. Residential	12.0	11.7	11.7	13.9	18.3
U.S. Power Plant	29.3	28.9	27.7	29.6	31.8
U.S. Industrial	23.1	23.2	23.4	23.6	24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.5	5.5	5.4	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.1	2.1	2.5	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	81.1	80.3	79.3	84.9	96.3
Total U.S. Demand	192.5	107.8	106.8	N/A	118.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	96	98	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	100	101	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	103	104	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Mar 27	Week ended Mar 20	2025	2024	2023
Wind	16	17	11	11	10
Solar	9	8	6	5	4
Hydro	8	8	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	34	34	40	42	41
Coal	13	12	18	16	17
Nuclear	18	19	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL		2.88	N/A	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL		1.93	N/A	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL		1.56	N/A	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL		1.81	N/A	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL		2.26	N/A	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL		2.05	N/A	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL		2.10	N/A	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL		-3.59	N/A	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL		1.51	N/A	1.13	2.13

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX		36.09	N/A	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX		2.84	N/A	60.23	54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX		22.96	N/A	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX		31.77	N/A	34.82	59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX		25.08	N/A	28.44	53.02

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