US natural gas futures fall, poised for sharp quarterly drop
By Sarah Qureshi
March 31 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Tuesday and were on track for a sharp quarterly loss as traders closely monitored developments in the Middle East war.
Front-month gas futures for May delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.1% to settle at $2.884 per million British thermal units. Prices are up 1% so far this month, but down 21% for the quarter.
"In my opinion, the domestic market conditions are largely bearish at the moment - prolific production, weak demand due to warmer-than-normal weather, while the war is still the culprit for price volatility," said Zhen Zhu, managing consultant at C.H. Guernsey and Company in Oklahoma City.
"The Iran war may provide the reason for a short-term price jitter, as its immediate impact on domestic price is fairly limited due to LNG export capacity constraint," he added.
Brent oil futures were headed for their largest monthly gain in volatile trading on Tuesday, as investors weighed the likelihood of U.S. President Donald Trump ending the Iran war against supply shocks from a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the next few days in the war would be decisive and warned Tehran that the conflict would intensify if it did not make a deal.
Traders now await the release on Thursday of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly gas storage report. EIA/GAS
U.S. energy firms are expected to have injected about 33 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage for the week ended March 27, according to early estimates from a Reuters poll. Such a reading would lift inventories to around 1,925 bcf, compared with a five‑year average of 1,811 bcf, according to a survey conducted by Reuters.
| Week ended Mar 27 Forecasts | Week ended Mar 20 Actual | Year ago Mar 20 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 20 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +33 | -54 | +33 | -21 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,925 | 1,829 | 1,739 | 1,815 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.3% | +0.8% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.85 | 3.02 | 4.14 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 17.18 | 17.73 | 13.21 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 20.53 | 20.40 | 13.50 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 143 | 179 | 173 | 215 | 224 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 34 | 36 | 20 | 18 | 12 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 177 | 215 | 193 | 233 | 236 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.3 | 110.0 | 110.1 | 106.8 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.3 | 6.9 | 7.5 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 116.6 | 117.0 | 117.6 | N/A | 108.0 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 5.2 | 6.4 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.7 | 19.0 | 18.6 | 16.1 | 13.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 9.0 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 12.1 |
U.S. Residential | 12.0 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 13.9 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.3 | 28.9 | 28.2 | 29.6 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.1 | 23.1 | 23.3 | 23.6 | 24.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 81.1 | 79.7 | 79.2 | 84.9 | 96.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 110.3 | 107.6 | 108.0 | N/A | 118.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 98 | 98 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 101 | 100 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 104 | 104 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended Mar 27 | Week ended Mar 20 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 17 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 34 | 35 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 12 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.88 | 2.99 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.93 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.56 | 1.58 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.81 | 2.13 | 3.29 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.26 | 2.42 | 3.53 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.05 | 2.7 | 3.74 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.10 | 2.2 | 3.53 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -3.59 | -3.04 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.51 | 1.71 | 1.47 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 36.09 | 34.44 | 50.19 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 2.84 | 58.5 | 48.35 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX | 22.96 | 14.14 | 34.51 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 31.77 | 31.79 | 23.31 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX | 25.08 | 18.07 | 16.63 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
