U.S. natural gas futures rise on cooler weather outlook ahead of contract expiry
By Sarah Qureshi
March 27 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 2% on Friday on expectations of cooler temperatures boosting demand and positioning ahead of the expiry of the front-month contract.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.6 cents, or about 2%, to $3.06 per million British thermal units, reaching the highest level since March 23.
However, the front-month was down 1.3% so far this week. The contract expires on Friday.
"The prompt gas switch continues to strengthen ahead of today’s April contract expiration in sending off some strong near-term bullish vibrations," said analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates in a note.
"While some of this price up-spike may be in sympathy with today’s gains in the oil, some adjustments in the short-term weather outlooks favoring cooler temperatures beyond next week are also prompting buying interest."
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, at 109.9 bcfd this week and 109.9 bcfd next week.
"A growing concern that the combination of a prolonged interruption of LNG supplies from Qatar will lead to U.S. facilities forgoing spring maintenance is starting to provide support," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.
Qatar, the world's biggest LNG producer, has declared force majeure on all of its LNG output after being attacked as part of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Iranian attacks have knocked out 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy's CEO and state minister for energy affairs told Reuters on Thursday.
"We expect the May contract to trade in a fairly tight band over the next week. We are already testing resistance at $3.02, a break through it will take us to the next consolidation level near $3.09 while support will be found just above $2.90," Cunningham says.
Energy companies pulled 54 billion cubic feet of gas from stockpiles during the week ended March 20, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday.
That was more than the 44 bcf draw forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll and compared with an injection of 33 bcf in the same week a year ago.
| Week ended Mar 27 Forecasts | Week ended Mar 20 Actual | Year ago Mar 20 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 20 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +18 | -54 | +33 | -21 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,847 | 1,829 | 1,739 | 1,815 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +2.0% | +0.8% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.99 | 2.95 | 4.14 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 17.68 | 34.07 | 13.21 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 20.50 | 19.99 | 13.50 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 179 | 169 | 193 | 232 | 243 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 36 | 40 | 15 | 15 | 10 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 215 | 209 | 208 | 247 | 253 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.3 | 109.3 | 109.5 | 106.8 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.3 | 7.4 | 8.0 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 116.5 | 116.7 | 117.5 | N/A | 108.0 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.7 | 18.8 | 18.5 | 16.1 | 13.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 9.0 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 12.1 |
U.S. Residential | 11.9 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 13.9 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.4 | 27.5 | 28.2 | 29.6 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.1 | 23.3 | 23.3 | 23.6 | 24.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 81.1 | 80.7 | 80.6 | 84.9 | 96.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 110.3 | 109.9 | 109.8 | N/A | 118.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | - | 101 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | - | 104 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | - | 106 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended Mar 27 | Week ended Mar 20 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 16 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 34 | 35 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 13 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 18 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.99 | 2.94 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.32 | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.64 | 1.61 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.21 | 2.06 | 3.29 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.56 | 2.44 | 3.53 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.8 | 2.29 | 3.74 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.2 | 2.19 | 3.53 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -2.61 | -3.06 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.47 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 34.44 | 34.44 | 50.19 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 50.12 | 42.45 | 48.35 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX | 10.85 | 14.44 | 34.51 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 26.8 | 21.71 | 23.31 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX | 14.15 | 12.12 | 16.63 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
