Goldman lifts Q2 aluminum forecast to $3,200 on supply disruptions

March 24 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs raised its second-quarter LME aluminum average price forecast to $3,200 a tonne from $3,100, citing supply losses from Middle East disruptions and the shutdown of the Mozal smelter in Mozambique.

LME aluminium CMAL3 traded at $3,260.50 at 2215 GMT.

Goldman removed roughly 850,000 tonnes from its 2026 supply forecast, reflecting reduced output at Qatalum in Qatar, which is operating at 60% after a controlled shutdown, and at Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), which has idled 19% of capacity.

The bank also assumed a 30% drop in Iranian output due to energy infrastructure damage and cut Mozal’s 560,000‑tonne capacity after it entered care and maintenance .

On the demand side, Goldman cut 600,000 tonnes from its 2026 outlook as higher energy prices weigh on global GDP growth, lowering its forecast for aluminium demand growth to 0.1% from 0.9% previously.

It now expects a 550,000‑tonne surplus in 2026, narrower than the 800,000‑tonne surplus previously projected, and forecasts a sharp 900,000‑tonne deficit in Q2 as inventories fall to historical lows, keeping prices near current levels.

Goldman said risks to prices remain skewed higher, warning that extended disruptions to Strait of Hormuz flows could deepen Middle East curtailments and potentially push the 2026 average LME price toward $3,400.

However, elevated speculative positioning, potential upside in Chinese supply and reduced demand switching from copper may limit gains.