US natgas futures drop 7%, giving up gains since the US and Israel bombed Iran
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 7% to a three-week low on Monday on a drop in global energy prices after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was in talks with Iran to end the war, and on forecasts for milder weather and less gas demand in the U.S. over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 20.4 cents, or 6.6%, to settle at $2.891 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since February 27.
That means U.S. gas futures have given up most of their gains since the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28.
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas have been in negative territory for a record 32 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Even though March is part of the winter season when utilities usually pull gas from storage to meet heating demand, mostly mild weather in recent weeks has allowed energy firms to inject gas into storage.
But analysts forecast slightly cooler weather last week likely prompted energy firms to make their last withdrawals from storage this winter, cutting stockpiles from about 3% above normal levels during the week ended March 13 to near-normal levels during the week ended March 20. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking forward, meteorologists forecast weather would remain warmer than normal through April 7, keeping heating demand low in coming weeks.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 110.2 bcfd this week to 112.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants have slid to 18.5 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas. Past gas price spikes were due primarily to supply disruptions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
In recent weeks, the war in Iran caused global gas prices TRNLTTFMc1, JKMc1 to surge again by knocking out LNG supplies from Qatar, which provides about 20% of the world's LNG.
Week ended Mar 20 Forecast | Week ended Mar 13 Actual | Year ago Mar 20 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 20 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -62 | +35 | +33 | -21 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,821 | 1,883 | 1,739 | 1,815 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +0.3% | +2.6% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.09 | 3.10 | 4.14 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 20.92 | 20.43 | 13.21 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 21.71 | 22.35 | 13.50 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 190 | 192 | 190 | 227 | 231 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 34 | 40 | 35 | 23 | 16 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 224 | 232 | 225 | 250 | 247 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.6 | 109.4 | 109.5 | 106.8 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.6 | 7.5 | 8.1 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 117.2 | 116.9 | 117.6 | N/A | 108.0 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.7 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.5 | 18.7 | 18.6 | 16.1 | 13.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 12.9 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 12.1 |
U.S. Residential | 19.3 | 12.3 | 14.4 | 13.9 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.5 | 29.1 | 27.3 | 29.6 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 24.6 | 23.2 | 23.5 | 23.6 | 24.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 94.5 | 81.3 | 83.0 | 84.9 | 96.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 122.9 | 110.2 | 112.0 | N/A | 118.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 98 | 100 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 101 | 100 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 104 | 105 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended Mar 27 | Week ended Mar 20 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 15 | 11 | 11 | 10 | |
Solar | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | |
Hydro | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Natural Gas | 35 | 40 | 42 | 41 | |
Coal | 14 | 18 | 16 | 17 | |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.04 | 3.21 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.25 | 2.40 | 3.40 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.76 | 1.79 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.25 | 2.30 | 3.29 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.61 | 2.74 | 3.53 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 3.15 | 2.79 | 3.74 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.39 | 2.43 | 3.53 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -3.39 | -3.78 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.47 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 50.25 | 46.01 | 50.19 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 50.40 | 43.30 | 48.35 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX | 15.17 | 2.62 | 34.51 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 28.78 | 32.29 | 23.31 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX | 15.39 | 16.26 | 16.63 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
