FACTBOX-Analysts hike oil price outlooks as Iran conflict persists
March 23 (Reuters) - Major brokerages have revised their 2026 average oil price forecasts as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran rages on, with the conflict having sent oil prices surging more than 50% this month.
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude oil forecast for 2026 to $85 a barrel from $77, citing prolonged disruptions in Strait of Hormuz shipments and increased strategic stockpiling that are tightening the market.
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan expects Brent prices to average $100/bbl in the second quarter of 2026 and fall back to $80/bbl by the end of the year.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were steady at $112.18 a barrel by 0202 GMT after settling on Friday at their highest since July 2022, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was up 52 cents at $98.75. O/R
Iran warned it would strike energy and water infrastructure across the Gulf if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through on his threat to attack its electricity grid, as the conflict in the Middle East continues for more than three weeks.
Brokerage/Agency | Brent | WTI | Forecasts as of | Price Targets | ||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | 2027 |
|
|
Goldman Sachs | $85 ($77 previously) | $80 ($71 previously) | $79 ($72 previously) | $75 ($67 previously) | March 22, 2026 | Expect Brent to average $110/bbl in March and April |
J.P Morgan | - | $72 | - | - | March 20, 2026 | Expects Brent prices averaging $100/bbl in Q2'26, $90/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
Standard Chartered | $85.50 ($70 previously) |
|
|
|
| Expects Brent to average $78/bbl in Q1'26, and $98/bbl in Q2'26 |
BofA | $77.50 ($61 previously) | $66 ($62 previously) | - | $61 ($59 previously) | March 16, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26, but average $76/bbl in Q3'26 |
Barclays | $85 (from $65 previously) The forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz normalises in 2-3 weeks | - | - | - | March 13, 2026 | But if the Strait of Hormuz takes 4-6 weeks to normalise, says Brent could climb to $100/bbl |
ANZ | - | - | - | - | March 12, 2026 | Raises Brent forecast for Q1'26 to $100/bbl from $90/bbl |
BMI | $70 ($67 previously) | $70 | $68 | $68 | March 12, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26, respectively. |
Citi | $71 ($63 previously) | $64 | $68($60 previously) | $61 | March 11, 2026 | Anticipates Brent averaging $75/bbl in Q1'26, $78/bbl in Q2'26, and $68/bbl in Q3’26 |
HSBC | $80 ($65 previously) | $70($66 previously) | $76($61 previously) | $67($63 previously) | March 10, 2026 |
|
Macquarie | - | - | - | - | March 6, 2026 | Expects crude prices could rise to $150/bbl or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks |
UBS | $72 ($62 previously) | $70 | $68($58 previously) | $66 | March 4, 2026 | Expects prices to move towards >$100/bbl and into more severe demand destruction of the territory of $120+/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted |
