US natural gas futures drop 2% on output rise, milder weather forecasts
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Friday on rising output and forecasts for milder weather and less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.6 cents, or 2.4%, to $3.09 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest price since March 12.
That move put the front-month down about 1% so far this week after it lost about 2% last week.
In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas have been in negative territory for a record 31 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
In the Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, ample cheap hydropower supplies and low demand cut next-day power prices at the Mid Columbia hub W-MIDCP-IDX in Oregon to $2.62 per megawatt hour (MWh), the lowest level since May 2023.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Even though March is part of the winter heating season when utilities usually pull gas from storage to meet demand, mostly mild weather in recent weeks has allowed energy firms to inject gas into storage.
Analysts forecast that slightly cooler weather this week prompted energy firms to pull some gas from storage, cutting stockpiles from about 3% above normal levels during the week ended March 13 to around near-normal levels during the week ended March 20. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking forward, meteorologists forecast weather would remain warmer than normal through April 4, keeping heating demand low in coming weeks.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 122.8 bcfd this week to 110.4 bcfd next week before edging up to 112.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants have slid to 18.5 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas. Past gas price spikes were due primarily to supply disruptions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
In recent weeks, the war in Iran caused global gas prices TRNLTTFMc1, JKMc1 to surge again by knocking out LNG supplies from Qatar, which provides about 20% of the world's LNG.
Week ended Mar 20 Forecast | Week ended Mar 13 Actual | Year ago Mar 20 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 20 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -62 | +35 | +33 | -21 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,821 | 1,883 | 1,739 | 1,815 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +0.3% | +2.6% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.12 | 3.17 | 4.14 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 20.91 | 20.67 | 13.21 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 22.35 | 20.18 | 13.50 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 192 | 202 | 204 | 254 | 244 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 40 | 42 | 20 | 17 | 15 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 232 | 244 | 224 | 271 | 259 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 110.0 | 109.6 | 109.1 | 106.4 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.9 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 117.4 | 117.2 | 117.0 | N/A | 108.0 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 4.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.7 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.3 | 18.5 | 18.7 | 16.1 | 13.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 9.8 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 12.1 |
U.S. Residential | 13.9 | 19.3 | 12.8 | 16.3 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 28.5 | 29.4 | 28.4 | 28.2 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.3 | 24.6 | 23.2 | 23.9 | 24.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 83.3 | 94.3 | 81.5 | 86.8 | 96.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 112.8 | 122.8 | 110.4 | N/A | 118.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 100 | 100 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 100 | 100 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 105 | 105 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended Mar 20 | Week ended Mar 13 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 15 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 35 | 34 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 14 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.21 | 3.12 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.40 | 2.54 | 3.40 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.79 | 1.62 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.30 | 2.43 | 3.29 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.74 | 2.72 | 3.53 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.79 | 3.15 | 3.74 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.43 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -3.78 | -3.67 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.40 | 1.28 | 1.47 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 46.01 | 50.59 | 50.19 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 43.30 | 62.87 | 48.35 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX | 2.62 | 8.98 | 34.51 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 32.29 | 34.07 | 23.31 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX | 16.26 | 21.45 | 16.63 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
