US natural gas futures slide 3% as output climbs, demand wanes
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Monday on a slow rise in output so far this month and forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.8 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at $3.023 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 27 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Energy analysts said mostly mild weather in recent weeks has allowed energy firms to take the somewhat unusual step of injecting gas into storage during the winter heating season in March, boosting stockpiles to near normal levels for the week ended March 13, up from around 1% below normal for the week ended March 6. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast heating demand would remain near normal across most of the country through March 31, but noted that hot weather in some parts of the country, like California, would boost demand for gas to fuel power generators needed to keep air conditioners humming.
High temperatures in Los Angeles will reach record-breaking levels over 95 Fahrenheit (35 Celsius) this week, according to meteorologists at AccuWeather. That compares with usual highs of around 70 F in the city at this time of year.
In the eastern half of the country, over half a million homes and businesses were without power following a series of storms that have battered the region since late last week. Those outages reduce the amount of gas power generators need to burn.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 123.6 bcfd this week to 115.8 bcfd next. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to 18.4 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.
Prices in the U.S. have reacted to the Iran war, but not by nearly as much as elsewhere in the world because America produces all the gas it needs and was already exporting all the LNG it could. So no matter how high global gas prices go, the U.S. cannot export much more gas.
Since the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28, U.S. gas prices have climbed by about 8% versus gains of around 53% in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and 71% in Asia JKMc1.
| Week ended Mar 13 Forecast | Week ended Mar 6 Actual | Year ago Mar 13 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 13 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +8 | -38 | -1 | -29 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,856 | 1,848 | 1,706 | 1,836 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +0.1% | -0.9% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.08 | 3.13 | 4.14 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 17.23 | 17.15 | 13.21 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 18.30 | 16.18 | 13.50 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 255 | 262 | 204 | 254 | 261 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 32 | 33 | 20 | 17 | 13 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 287 | 295 | 224 | 271 | 274 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 110.0 | 110.3 | 110.1 | 106.4 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.4 | 7.6 | 8.2 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 117.4 | 117.8 | 118.4 | N/A | 108.0 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.7 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.7 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.3 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 16.1 | 13.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 9.8 | 13.0 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 12.1 |
U.S. Residential | 13.9 | 19.4 | 15.8 | 16.3 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 28.5 | 29.2 | 28.2 | 28.2 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.3 | 24.7 | 23.7 | 23.9 | 24.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 83.3 | 94.4 | 86.5 | 86.8 | 96.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 112.8 | 123.6 | 115.8 | N/A | 118.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 99 | 100 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 99 | 100 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 104 | 104 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended Mar 20 | Week ended Mar 13 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 18 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 32 | 34 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 13 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 20 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.20 | 3.27 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.36 | 2.55 | 3.40 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.64 | 1.67 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SN | 2.55 | 2.65 | 3.29 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.96 | 2.84 | 3.53 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.81 | 2.21 | 3.74 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.98 | 2.34 | 3.53 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -1.76 | -4.75 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.34 | 1.32 | 1.47 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 50.33 | 45.18 | 50.19 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 72.17 | 55.73 | 48.35 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid Columbia W-MIDCP-IDX | 15.95 | 9.24 | 34.51 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 30.00 | 14.08 | 23.31 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 18.99 | 8.76 | 16.63 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
