HSBC Raises 2026 TTF Gas Price Forecast
March 16 (Reuters) - HSBC:
says it is raising 2026 TTF forecast to $14/mBtu (from $10) in note dated march 11
says it is also raising 2027e TTF price to $10/mBtu (from $8.5/mBtu), as delayed LNG projects push back the looming supply glut to 2028
says forecast for 2028 and beyond remains at $8.5/mBtu
says upward revision is driven by anticipated LNG deficit this year, heightened competition for cargoes over summer, and risk of prolonged disruptions in Middle East
says it expects significantly tighter LNG balance this year, with loss of LNG supply from QatarEnergy shutting its facility and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting 20% of global LNG flows.
says On base case of a one-month effective closure, followed by two weeks for QatarEnergy to restart its plant, it estimates a total supply loss of nearly 9mt in 2026 (also factoring in reduced UAE LNG exports)
