FACTBOX-Analysts hike oil price outlooks as Iran conflict enters third week
March 16 (Reuters) - Major brokerages have revised their 2026 average oil price forecasts as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran enters its third week, with the conflict having sent oil prices surging more than 40% this month.
Bank of America raised its Brent crude oil forecast for 2026 to $77.50 a barrel from $61, citing tight supply caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes.
Standard Chartered said it now sees the average 2026 Brent price at $85.50 a barrel, up from $70 previously.
"Despite optimistic comments from the U.S. about the potential duration of the conflict, there appear to be no clear ‘off-ramps’ at present," the bank said.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 53 cents at $102.61 a barrel by 1636 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was down $2.77 to $95.94. O/R
U.S. President Donald Trump said the military campaign against Iran had continued "in full force" over the past few days, adding that since beginning of the war, Washington had struck more than 7,000 targets across the Islamic Republic.
Brokerage/Agency | Brent | WTI | Forecasts as of | Price Targets | ||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | 2027 |
|
|
Standard Chartered | $85.50 ($70 previously) |
|
|
|
| Expects Brent to average $78/bbl in Q1'26, and $98/bbl in Q2'26 |
BofA | $77.50 ($61 previously) | $66 ($62 previously) | - | $61 ($59 previously) | March 16, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26, but average $76/bbl in Q3'26 |
Barclays | $85 (from $65 previously) Forecast assumes Strait of Hormuz normalises in 2-3 weeks | - | - | - | March 13, 2026 | But if the Strait of Hormuz takes 4-6 weeks to normalise, says Brent could climb to $100/bbl |
ANZ | - | - | - | - | March 12, 2026 | Raises Brent forecast for Q1'26 to $100/bbl from $90/bbl |
Goldman Sachs | $77($71 previously) | $71($70 previously) | $72($67 previously) | $67($66 previously) | March 12, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $75/bbl and $71/bbl over the next three and twelve months, respectively. |
BMI | $70($67 previously) | $70 | $68 | $68 | March 12, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26 respectively. |
Citi | $71($63 previously) | $64 | $68($60 previously) | $61 | March 11, 2026 | Anticipates Brent averaging $75/bbl in Q1'26, $78/bbl in Q2'26, and $68/bbl in Q3’26 |
HSBC | $80($65 previously) | $70($66 previously) | $76($61 previously) | $67($63 previously) | March 10, 2026 |
|
Macquarie | - | - | - | - | March 6, 2026 | Expects crude prices could rise to $150/bbl or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks |
UBS | $72($62 previously) | $70 | $68($58 previously) | $66 | March 4, 2026 | Expects prices to move towards >$100/bbl and into more severe demand destruction territory of $120+/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted |
