FACTBOX-BofA raises 2026 Brent price forecast as Hormuz closure tightens supply
March 16 (Reuters) - Bank of America raised its Brent crude oil forecast for 2026 to $77.50 a barrel from $61, citing tight supply caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flow.
The bank said Brent could trade at $70 a barrel if a quick resolution were found and oil flows normalise by April. However, if the disruption extends into the second half of the year, Brent could average as high as $130 a barrel, a scenario it described as unlikely.
U.S. allies said they had no immediate plans to send ships to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, rebuffing a request by U.S. President Donald Trump for military support to keep the waterway open.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 92 cents at $102.22 a barrel by 1248 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was down $3.45, or 3.5%, to $95.26.
Other major brokerages have also revised their average oil price forecasts for 2026 as the Middle East conflict enters its third week, after the fighting drove oil prices up nearly 40% this month. O/R
Israel said it has detailed plans for at least three more weeks of war as its military pounded sites across Iran overnight, while Iranian drone attacks temporarily shut Dubai airport and hit an oil facility in the United Arab Emirates.
Brokerage/Agency | Brent | WTI | Forecasts as of | Price Targets | ||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | 2027 |
| |
BofA | $77.50 ($61 previously) | $66 ($62 previously) | - | $61 ($59 previously) | March 16, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26, but average $76/bbl in Q3'26 |
Barclays | $85 (from $65 previously) Forecast assumes Strait of Hormuz normalises in 2-3 weeks | - | - | - | March 13, 2026 | But if the Strait of Hormuz takes 4-6 weeks to normalise, says Brent could climb to $100/bbl |
ANZ | - | - | - | - | March 12, 2026 | Raises Brent forecast for Q1'26 to $100/bbl from $90/bbl |
Goldman Sachs | $77($71 previously) | $71($70 previously) | $72($67 previously) | $67($66 previously) | March 12, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $75/bbl and $71/bbl over the next three and twelve months, respectively. |
BMI | $70($67 previously) | $70 | $68 | $68 | March 12, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26 respectively. |
Citi | $71($63 previously) | $64 | $68($60 previously) | $61 | March 11, 2026 | Anticipates Brent averaging $75/bbl in Q1'26, $78/bbl in Q2'26, and $68/bbl in Q3’26 |
HSBC | $80($65 previously) | $70($66 previously) | $76($61 previously) | $67($63 previously) | March 10, 2026 | |
Macquarie | - | - | - | - | March 6, 2026 | Expects crude prices could rise to $150/bbl or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks |
UBS | $72($62 previously) | $70 | $68($58 previously) | $66 | March 4, 2026 | Expects prices to move towards >$100/bbl and into more severe demand destruction territory of $120+/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted |
