FACTBOX-Analysts hike oil price estimates as Iran conflict enters third week
March 16 (Reuters) - Major brokerages have revised their average oil price forecasts for 2026 as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran enters its third week, with the conflict having sent oil prices surging more than 40% this month. O/R
U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday insisted that nations relying heavily on oil from the Gulf have a responsibility to protect the Strait of Hormuz, calling on them to help protect ships in the vital waterway that Tehran has mostly blocked to oil tanker traffic.
Brokerage/Agency | Brent | WTI | Forecasts as of | Price Targets | ||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | 2027 |
| |
Barclays | $85 (from $65 previously) Forecast assumes Strait of Hormuz normalises in 2-3 weeks | - | - | - | March 13, 2026 | But if the Strait of Hormuz takes 4-6 weeks to normalise, says Brent could climb to $100/bbl |
ANZ | - | - | - | - | March 12, 2026 | Raises Brent forecast for Q1'26 to $100/bbl from $90/bbl |
Goldman Sachs | $77($71 previously) | $71($70 previously) | $72($67 previously) | $67($66 previously) | March 12, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $75/bbl and $71/bbl over the next three and twelve months, respectively. |
BMI | $70($67 previously) | $70 | $68 | $68 | March 12, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26 respectively. |
Citi | $71($63 previously) | $64 | $68($60 previously) | $61 | March 11, 2026 | Sees Brent averaging $75/bbl in Q1'26, $78/bbl in Q2'26, and $68/bbl in Q3’26 |
BofA | $78($60 previously) | $65($57 previously) | $73($62 previously) | $61($59 previously) | March 10, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26, but average $65/bbl in 2027 as the pre-war surplus re-emerges |
HSBC | $80($65 previously) | $70($66 previously) | $76($61 previously) | $67($63 previously) | March 10, 2026 | |
Macquarie | - | - | - | - | March 6, 2026 | Sees crude prices potentially rising to $150/bbl or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks |
UBS | $72($62 previously) | $70 | $68($58 previously) | $66 | March 4, 2026 | Expects prices to move towards >$100/bbl and into more severe demand destruction territory of $120+/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted |
