US natural gas futures leap 6% as Middle East conflict disrupts global supplies

ReutersMar 3, 2026 3:28 PM

US natural gas futures rise amid Middle East conflict
Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints
US LNG exports decline slightly from February record

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, March 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a two-week high on Tuesday on soaring oil and gas prices around the world as the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran widened across the Middle East region, disrupting the movement of energy supplies.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 18.7 cents, or 6.3%, to $3.147 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its highest close since February 13.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 18th day in a row, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 27 times so far this year.

Waha prices have averaged 24 cents per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 states has held at 109.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, the same as in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Energy analysts said a winter storm last week likely caused energy firms to pull more gas out of storage than usual, knocking stockpiles down to about 2% below normal for the week ended February 27 from near normal in the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

But with meteorologists predicting weather across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through March 18, analysts expect stockpiles to reach above-normal levels by mid-March.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 121.8 bcfd this week to 110.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday, while its forecast for next week was lower.

Average gas flows to the nine large U.S. LNG export plants have eased to 18.4 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.

In the Middle East, QatarEnergy halted LNG production on Monday after Iran attacked its facilities, causing gas prices around the world to soar. Qatar is one of the biggest LNG producers in the world along with the U.S. and Australia.

Around the world, gas soared to a three-year high near $19 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and an eight-month high near $13 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Feb 27 Forecast	Week ended Feb 20 Actual	Year ago Feb 27	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 27
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-125	-52	-106	-96
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	1,893	2,018	1,771	1,929
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-1.9%	-0.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.12	2.96	4.14	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	18.70	14.78	13.21	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	13.37	10.73	13.50	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	218	221	265	316	318
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	29	27	10	12	9
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	247	248	275	328	327

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.2	109.6	109.9	106.3	99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada	9.4	8.5	8.3	N/A	8.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	118.7	118.2	118.2	N/A	108.0

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	4.0	3.6	3.4	N/A	3.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.6	6.5	N/A	5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.7	18.5	18.5	15.6	13.2
U.S. Commercial	16.1	12.2	9.3	13.9	12.1
U.S. Residential	26.2	18.3	13.0	22.0	18.3
U.S. Power Plant	32.5	30.5	28.9	30.2	31.8
U.S. Industrial	25.3	24.0	23.1	24.8	24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.9	2.5	2.2	3.4	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	108.5	93.1	82.1	99.4	96.3
Total U.S. Demand	137.7	121.8	110.5	N/A	118.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	93	93	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	92	93	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	98	97	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Mar 6	Week ended Feb 27	2025	2024	2023
Wind	13	13	11	11	10
Solar	7	6	6	5	4
Hydro	7	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	37	37	40	42	41
Coal	15	16	18	16	17
Nuclear	19	19	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.99	2.96	4.13	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.65	4.03	3.40	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	1.40	1.30	3.52	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.40	2.61	3.29	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.75	2.75	3.53	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	4.81	11.25	3.74	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.18	1.62	3.53	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SN	-2.78	-2.44	0.78	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.17	1.02	1.47	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	65.00	115.83	50.19	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	54.33	65.08	48.35	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	13.61	20.40	34.51	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	12.75	11.10	23.31	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	6.86	6.57	16.63	28.44	53.02

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