US natgas futures jump 4% on energy supply concerns from Iran conflict

ReutersMar 2, 2026 8:41 PM

US gas futures rise despite warmer weather forecasts
Waha Hub prices in Texas negative for 17th consecutive day
Global gas prices hit highs on supply concerns

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, March 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% on Monday on near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a rise in global energy prices as traders worried about supply disruptions as the U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran widened in the Middle East.

Capping gains in U.S. gas futures were milder forecasts for weather and heating demand over the next two weeks.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.1 cents, or 3.5%, to settle at $2.96 per million British thermal units.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 17th day in a row, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 26 times so far this year.

Waha prices have averaged 32 cents per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).

In Northern California, next-day gas at the PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL fell to a record low of $1.30 per mmBtu. That compares with the prior all-time low of $1.30 on February 26 and averages of $2.28 so far in 2026, $3.42 in 2025, and $5.47 over the past five years (2021-2025).

While in Southern California, spot gas at the SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL fell to $1.62 per mmBtu, its lowest since November 2024. That compares with averages of $3.19 so far in 2026, $3.60 in 2025, and $5.71 over the past five years (2021-2025).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, down from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Energy analysts said a winter storm last week likely caused energy firms to pull more gas out of storage than usual, knocking stockpiles down to about 2% below normal for the week ended February 27 from near normal the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

But with meteorologists predicting weather across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through March 17, analysts expect stockpiles to reach above-normal levels by mid-March.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 121.4 bcfd this week to 110.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

Average gas flows to the nine large U.S. LNG export plants eased to 18.6 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.

In Europe, gas soared to a one-year high of around $15 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark after QatarEnergy halted production of LNG due to the Iran conflict. Qatar is one of the world's biggest LNG producers along with the U.S. and Australia. NG/EU

	Week ended Feb 27 Forecast	Week ended Feb 20 Actual	Year ago Feb 27	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 27
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-125	-52	-106	-96
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	1,893	2,018	1,771	1,929
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-1.9%	-0.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.01	2.86	4.14	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	15.34	11.24	13.21	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	10.73	10.61	13.50	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	221	234	265	316	322
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	27	29	10	12	8
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	248	263	275	328	330

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.2	109.7	109.9	106.3	99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada	9.4	8.5	8.3	N/A	8.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	118.7	118.2	118.2	N/A	108.0

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	4.0	3.5	3.4	N/A	3.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.4	6.5	N/A	5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.7	18.5	18.2	15.6	13.2
U.S. Commercial	16.1	12.0	9.4	13.9	12.1
U.S. Residential	26.2	18.0	13.0	22.0	18.3
U.S. Power Plant	32.5	31.0	29.5	30.2	31.8
U.S. Industrial	25.3	24.0	23.2	24.8	24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.9	2.5	2.2	3.4	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	108.5	92.9	82.8	99.4	96.3
Total U.S. Demand	137.7	121.4	110.9	N/A	118.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	93	92	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	93	92	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	97	97	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Mar 6	Week ended Feb 27	2025	2024	2023
Wind	14	13	11	11	10
Solar	8	6	6	5	4
Hydro	7	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	35	37	40	42	41
Coal	14	16	18	16	17
Nuclear	20	19	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.96	2.94	4.13	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	4.03	2.55	3.40	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	1.30	1.37	3.52	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.61	2.35	3.29	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.75	2.62	3.53	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	11.25	4.04	3.74	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	1.62	2.10	3.53	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-2.44	-1.66	0.78	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.02	1.01	1.47	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	115.83	53.15	50.19	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	65.08	37.64	48.35	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	20.40	16.66	34.51	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	11.10	10.96	23.31	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	6.57	12.12	16.63	28.44	53.02

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.