Brazil 2026/27 coffee exports could hit record of close to 47 mln 60-kg, Hedgepoint says

SAO PAULO, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Brazilian coffee exports in the 2026/27 season could hit an all-time high of close to 47 million 60-kilogram bags, driven by greater supply of arabica beans due to a bumper crop, Hedgepoint Global Markets said in a report published on Wednesday.

Brazil's total coffee exports for the cycle could reach between 45.5 million and 46.8 million bags, representing an annual increase of 8.3% in the least optimistic scenario and 11.4% in the most optimistic scenario, with either handily surpassing the 42 million bags shipped in 2025/26.

"We expect that a greater supply in Brazil and this pressure on coffee prices ... will lead to a certain recovery in consuming countries, to import more coffee to replenish their stocks in general. So, for that reason, we expect a certain increase in exports from Brazil as well, possibly record exports," Hedgepoint analyst Laleska Moda told journalists.

Brazil's 2026/27 arabica coffee crop is expected to produce between 46.5 million and 49 million 60-kilogram bags, Hedgepoint forecast, reflecting a higher projection than estimates from the country's Conab crop agency.

Earlier this month, Conab estimated arabica production for the season of a little over 44 million bags, as well as forecasting a total record coffee crop - including canephora varieties like robusta and conilon - of 66.2 million bags.

Hedgepoint's forecast production for canephora coffees also topped Conab's, with the financial services firm projecting output of 24.6 million to 25.4 million bags, while Conab had forecast 22.1 million bags.

Globally, Hedgepoint forecasts coffee production of around 188 million bags in the 2026/27 year, while demand will be around 181 million bags.

As the year progresses, Hedgepoint will keep tabs on potential climate risks, Moda said.

"In the past few months... we saw an increase in the chance of El Nino in the second semester," she said. El Nino is a warm climate pattern that causes global weather disruptions, which scientists say are exacerbated by climate change.

In Brazil, El Nino could result in wetter weather that might affect bean quality, Moda said.