Brazil 2026/27 arabica crop forecast to produce up to 49 million 60-kg bags of coffee, Hedgepoint says

SAO PAULO, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2026/27 arabica coffee crop is expected to produce between 46.5 million and 49 million 60-kilogram bags, according to a Hedgepoint Global Markets report published on Wednesday, above estimates from the country's Conab crop agency.

Earlier this month, Conab estimated arabica production for the season of a little over 44 million bags, as well as forecasting a total record coffee crop - including canephora varieties like robusta and conilon - of 66.2 million bags.

Hedgepoint's forecast production for canephora coffees also topped Conab's, with the financial services firm projecting output of 24.6 million to 25.4 million bags, while Conab had forecast 22.1 million bags.

Globally, Hedgepoint forecasts coffee production of around 188 million bags in the 2026/27 year, while demand will be around 181 million bags.

As the year progresses, Hedgepoint will keep tabs on potential climate risks, said analyst Laleska Moda.

"In the past few months... we saw an increase in the chance of El Nino in the second semester," she said. El Nino is a warm climate pattern that causes global weather disruptions, which scientists say is exacerbated by climate change.

In Brazil, El Nino could result in wetter weather that might affect bean quality, Moda said.