US natgas prices rise on strong LNG export flows, higher demand forecast for next week

ReutersFeb 25, 2026 2:53 PM

Near-record LNG export flows boost US natural gas futures
Waha Hub prices negative for 14th consecutive day due to pipeline constraints
US gas output rises in February, demand forecast higher than expected next week

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 25 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Wednesday on near-record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected.

On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.8 cents, or 1.3%, to $2.953 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its lowest since September 26.

Futures for April NGJ26, which will soon be the front-month, were up about 1.8% to $2.88 per mmBtu.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 14th day in a row, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 23 times so far this year.

Waha prices have averaged 52 cents per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).

In Arizona, next-day power at the Palo Verde Hub W-PVP-IDX fell to $5.92 per megawatt hour, its lowest since May 2024. That compares with an average of $26.65 so far in 2026, $34.82 in 2025, and $59.94 over the past five years (2021-2025).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 108.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 106.3 bcfd in January, according to LSEG data. Output hit a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

As utilities in the U.S. Northeast continued to restore power following a massive winter storm, meteorologists predicted weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 12.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 138.5 bcfd this week to 131.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

There was about 6% less gas in storage than usual during the week ended February 13.

Energy analysts expect a federal report on Thursday to show the deficit dropped to just 1% below normal during the week ended February 20 after mostly mild weather and low heating demand allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Average gas flows to the nine large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.7 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and on track to beat December's monthly record of 18.5 bcfd.

In LNG news, QatarEnergy/Exxon Mobil's XOM.N 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass export plant under construction in Texas continued to take in more feedgas this week as it prepared to produce its first LNG.

	Week ended Feb 20 Forecast	Week ended Feb 13 Actual	Year ago Feb 20	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 20
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-70	-144	-252	-168
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,000	2,070	1,877	2,025
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-1.2%	-5.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.90	2.92	3.74	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.67	10.87	15.28	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	10.52	10.73	14.41	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	272	287	302	348	339
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	22	20	5	10	7
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	294	307	307	358	346

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	110.3	108.6	108.7	104.2	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	9.1	9.5	9.2	N/A	9.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	119.4	118.1	117.9	N/A	106.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	4.0	4.0	4.0	N/A	3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.4	6.4	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.8	18.7	18.4	15.9	12.6
U.S. Commercial	13.3	16.3	14.7	13.1	14.6
U.S. Residential	21.4	26.7	23.1	20.5	24.0
U.S. Power Plant	29.8	32.6	31.5	31.9	31.8
U.S. Industrial	24.0	25.4	24.9	24.4	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.6	2.9	2.7	2.6	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	96.6	109.3	102.4	98.0	105.2
Total U.S. Demand	126.0	138.5	131.2	N/A	126.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	92	92	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	91	92	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	96	96	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 27	Week ended Feb 20	2025	2024	2023
Wind	12	14	11	11	10
Solar	7	5	6	5	4
Hydro	6	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	38	36	40	42	41
Coal	17	16	18	16	17
Nuclear	19	20	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.99	3.13	4.19	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.82	6.92	4.90	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	1.73	1.86	3.78	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.48	2.61	4.03	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.76	2.84	4.19	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	6.09	9.63	13.65	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.39	2.52	4.19	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-3.03	-3.76	2.76	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.18	1.19	1.53	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	78.33	105.40	134.58	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	44.30	70.75	53.89	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	9.73	20.71	67.87	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	5.92	10.18	29.05	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	7.58	14.92	25.19	28.44	53.02

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