JP Morgan raises long-term gold price forecast to $4,500

Feb 25 (Reuters) - JP Morgan raised on Wednesday its long-term forecast for gold prices to $4,500 an ounce, while keeping its 2026 year-end forecast at $6,300.

Spot gold XAU= has risen about 20% this year, hitting a three-week high of $5,248.89 an ounce on Tuesday that was off its January 29 all-time-high of $5,594.82.

That followed a 2025 surge of more than 64% in the traditional safe-haven metal.

In a note to clients, the bank cited increased central bank buying, public announcements of U.S. Treasury divestment and countries shifting revenue bases away from (the dollar) and into Chinese renmimbi.

In view of these factors, the bank said it upped its weighting for the "reserve currency paradigm shift" and "significant investor diversification", leading to its long-term forecast of $4,500 an ounce.

Many tools for long-term pricing of industrial commodities, such as incentive pricing and marginal cost analysis might be less applicable since the dynamics of gold supply and demand differ materially from those of other commodities, it added.

Geopolitical risks, the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate easing cycle, central bank buying and bullion-backed exchange traded fund inflows have driven gold to multiple record highs over the past year.

Low interest rates tend to work in gold's favour, playing into its non-yield nature.