US natural gas futures hit four-month low on mild weather forecast

ReutersFeb 24, 2026 2:19 PM

Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints
U.S. gas output rises, demand forecast to drop next week
U.S. LNG exports increase, surpassing previous monthly records

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% to a fresh four-month low on Tuesday on forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand next week than previously expected.

On their second-to-last day as the front-month, gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.7 cents, 0.9%, to $2.958 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since October 16 for a second day in a row.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 13th day in a row, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 22 times so far this year.

Waha prices have averaged 62 cents per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 108.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January, according to LSEG data. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

As utilities in the U.S. Northeast restore power following a massive winter storm earlier this week, meteorologists changed their predictions for weather across the country to mostly warmer than normal through March 11 from an earlier outlook of near normal for the next two weeks.

LSEG projects average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will slide from 138.3 bcfd this week to 128.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday, while its forecast for next week was lower.

There was about 6% less gas in storage than usual during the week ended February 13. Energy analysts expect that deficit to drop to just 1% less than normal during the week ended February 20 after mostly mild weather and low heating demand allowed utilities to leave more of the fuel in storage than usual for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Average gas flows to the nine large U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants rose to 18.7 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and on track to beat December's monthly record of 18.5 bcfd.

In LNG news, QatarEnergy/Exxon Mobil's XOM.N 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass export plant under construction in Texas continued to take in more feedgas this week as it prepared to produce its first LNG.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading near $11 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Feb 20 Forecast	Week ended Feb 13 Actual	Year ago Feb 20	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 20
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-70	-144	-252	-168
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,000	2,070	1,877	2,025
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-1.2%	-5.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.95	2.99	3.74	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.79	10.95	15.28	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	10.73	10.66	14.41	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	287	320	302	348	343
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	20	19	5	10	7
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	307	349	307	358	350

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	110.3	108.8	109.1	104.2	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	9.1	9.4	9.2	N/A	9.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	119.4	118.2	118.3	N/A	106.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	4.0	4.0	4.0	N/A	3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.5	6.5	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.8	18.8	18.4	15.9	12.6
U.S. Commercial	13.3	16.5	14.2	13.1	14.6
U.S. Residential	21.4	27.1	22.0	20.5	24.0
U.S. Power Plant	29.8	31.5	30.3	31.9	31.8
U.S. Industrial	24.0	25.5	24.7	24.4	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.6	2.9	2.6	2.6	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	96.6	109.0	99.4	98.0	105.2
Total U.S. Demand	126.0	138.3	128.4	N/A	126.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	92	93	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	92	92	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	96	96	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 27	Week ended Feb 20	2025	2024	2023
Wind	13	14	11	11	10
Solar	6	5	6	5	4
Hydro	7	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	37	36	40	42	41
Coal	17	16	18	16	17
Nuclear	19	20	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.13	3.15	4.19	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	6.92	3.53	4.90	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	1.86	1.91	3.78	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.61	2.62	4.03	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.84	2.88	4.19	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	9.63	7.50	13.65	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.52	2.68	4.19	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-3.76	-4.56	2.76	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.19	1.28	1.53	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	105.40	93.18	134.58	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	70.75	68.42	53.89	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	20.71	21.30	67.87	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	10.18	17.43	29.05	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	14.92	20.06	25.19	28.44	53.02

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