US natgas prices climb 2% on near-record LNG export flows, colder forecasts

ReutersFeb 20, 2026 8:00 PM

LNG export flows near record highs
Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints
LSEG reports rising gas output and demand in Lower 48 states

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to a one-week high on Friday on near-record LNG export flows and forecasts for colder weather and more heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.1 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $3.047 per million British thermal units. On Thursday, the contract closed at its lowest since October 16.

That put the front-month down about 6% for the week and down for a fourth week in a row for the first time since August. During the past four weeks, the contract has dropped about 42%.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for an 11th straight day as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first closed below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 20 times so far this year.

Waha prices have averaged 92 cents per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 108.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, from 106.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

Meteorologists predicted weather across much of the country would remain mostly near normal through at least March 7, with next week expected to be a little cooler than this week.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise to 135.3 bcfd next week from 125.9 bcfd this week before sliding to 129.0 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

There was about 6% less gas in storage than usual during the week ended February 13. Analysts forecast that deficit would drop to around 1% below normal during the week ended February 20 after mild weather and low heating demand allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to 18.6 bcfd so far in February from 17.8 bcfd in January, on track to beat December's monthly record of 18.5 bcfd.

In LNG news, QatarEnergy/Exxon Mobil's XOM.N 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass export plant under construction in Texas was on track to take in more feedgas this week as it prepared to produce its first LNG.

	Week ended Feb 20 Forecast	Week ended Feb 13 Actual	Year ago Feb 20	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 20
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-70	-144	-252	-168
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,000	2,070	1,877	2,025
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-1.2%	-5.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.01	3.00	3.74	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.60	11.34	15.28	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	10.78	10.40	14.41	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	351	339	407	376	357
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	12	12	3	8	6
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	363	351	410	384	363

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	108.2	110.3	110.0	101.8	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.0	9.1	9.1	N/A	9.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	118.3	119.4	119.1	N/A	106.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.8	4.0	4.0	N/A	3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.6	6.6	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.6	18.8	18.7	15.8	12.6
U.S. Commercial	17.4	13.3	16.2	21.0	14.6
U.S. Residential	28.6	21.3	26.5	37.9	24.0
U.S. Power Plant	33.0	29.9	29.6	24.6	31.8
U.S. Industrial	25.5	24.0	25.3	27.0	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.0	2.6	2.8	3.0	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	113.0	96.6	106.0	118.9	105.2
Total U.S. Demand	142.0	125.9	135.3	N/A	126.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	95	94	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	95	93	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	99	98	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 20	Week ended Feb 13	2025	2024	2023
Wind	15	11	11	11	10
Solar	5	6	6	5	4
Hydro	7	6	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	1	0	0	0
Natural Gas	36	37	40	42	41
Coal	16	19	18	16	17
Nuclear	20	19	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.09	2.98	4.19	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.75	2.77	4.90	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.06	2.12	3.78	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.53	2.52	4.03	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.80	2.62	4.19	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	6.30	6.30	13.65	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.65	2.70	4.19	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-2.16	-2.41	2.76	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.44	1.58	1.53	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	80.05	78.78	134.58	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	41.32	43.30	53.89	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	28.49	30.10	67.87	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	18.42	22.50	29.05	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	20.99	27.34	25.19	28.44	53.02

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