Oil heads for first weekly gain in three as US-Iran tensions brew

By Laila Kearney and Trixie Yap

Feb 20 - Oil prices rose on Friday, headed for their first weekly gain in three, on growing concerns a conflict may erupt between the U.S. and Iran, after Washington said Tehran will suffer if it does not agree a deal on its nuclear activity in a matter of days.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 rose 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $71.91, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 gained 31 cents, or 0.5%, to $66.74 as of 0437 GMT.

Prices settled at a six-month high on Thursday after U.S. President Trump said "really bad things" would happen if Iran does not come to an agreement regarding a nuclear programme it has said is peaceful but that the U.S. believes is militaristic. Trump set a deadline of 10 to 15 days.

Iran, meanwhile, has planned a joint naval exercise with Russia, a local news agency reported, days after temporarily closing the Strait of Hormuz for military drills.

"Crude oil prices have edged to six-month highs as concerns over potential supply risks from the Strait of Hormuz keep markets on edge," said Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.

Iran lies opposite the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula across the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supply passes. Conflict in the area could limit oil supplies entering the global market and push up prices.

"Market focus has clearly shifted to escalating Middle East tensions after the failure of multiple rounds of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, even as investors debate whether any actual disruption will materialise," Sachdeva added.

Also supporting oil prices were reports of falling crude oil stocks and limited exports in the world's biggest oil producing and exporting countries.

U.S. crude inventories dropped by 9 million barrels, as refining utilisation and exports climbed, an Energy Information Administration report showed on Thursday. EIA/S

Worries about how interest rates in the U.S.- the world's largest oil consumer - could pan out limited oil price gains.

"Recent Fed minutes pointing to steady rates or even the risk of further hikes if inflation stays sticky could cap demand," said Phillip Nova's Sachdeva.

Low interest rates are typically seen as supportive for crude prices.

Markets were also mulling the impact of ample supply on prices, with talks of OPEC+ leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April.

The oil surplus that was evident in the second half of 2025 continued in January and "is likely to persist", JP Morgan analysts Natasha Kaneva and Lyuba Savinova said in a client note.

"Our balances continue to project sizable surpluses later this year," they said, adding that meant output cuts of 2 million barrels per day would be needed to prevent excess inventory builds in 2027.