Nutrien expects higher potash demand despite tough conditions for farmers

By Ed White

WINNIPEG, MANITOBA, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Top world potash producer Nutrien NTR.TO expects increased demand for the crop nutrient in 2026 despite farmers cutting back on phosphate fertilizer and facing low returns.

On its fourth-quarter financial results conference call, the Canadian company said it expects potash demand to rise due to large crops in 2025, reduced autumn application in the U.S., and potash's low cost relative to other fertilizers.

North American potash sales will be "driven by the need to replenish soil nutrients following a record crop and a shortened fall application window," said Nutrien CEO Ken Seitz. Good weather in Australia will also encourage farmers to buy potash, he said.

Nutrien's retail farm product sales in Brazil continue to be hampered by low profitability for farmers, Seitz said, causing growers to delay purchases as long as possible.

Farmers around the world are being squeezed between low grain prices and fertilizer prices that have not fallen as much, although they are much lower than in the post-pandemic surge. U.S. farmers are expected to reduce their corn acres this year, with high nitrogen fertilizer prices being one possible factor.

Some analysts expect farmers to reduce phosphate application this spring due to the squeeze, as they did in late 2025. That is possible because phosphate residue remains in the soil longer than the year in which it is applied, so farmers can sometimes delay purchases. That is not generally possible with nitrogen fertilizers.

Seitz said he does not expect reductions in potash use because it is the cheapest of the fertilizers and large crops in 2025 sucked much of the nutrient out of the soil.

Farmers faced with low profitability or losses will try to grow the biggest crops possible, which requires adequate fertilizer, he said.

"Their focus is very much on yield," said Seitz.