US natgas futures stay near 4-month low on expected storage withdrawal

ReutersFeb 19, 2026 3:59 PM

EIA reports slightly smaller than usual gas storage withdrawal
Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints
LSEG projects increased gas demand and output in February

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures stay near a four-month low on Thursday on a slow rise in output so far this month and a federal report showing last week's storage withdrawal was slightly smaller than normal for this time of year.

That lack of price movement came despite forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.7 cents, or 0.2%, to $3.018 per million British thermal units. On Wednesday, the contract closed at its lowest since October 17 for a second day in a row.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms pulled a slightly smaller than usual 144 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended February 13.

That was in line with the 146-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of 182 bcf during the same week last year and an average decrease of 151 bcf for the period over the last five years (2021-2025). EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

The withdrawal left stockpiles about 6% below normal for this time of year. Analysts, however, have said they expect most of that deficit will be wiped out by early March as mild weather keeps heating demand low and allows utilities to leave more fuel in storage. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

In the cash market, meanwhile, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for a 10th straight day and the 19th time so far this year, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices closed below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

Waha prices have averaged $1.02 per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 108.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in February, from 106.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

Meteorologists projected weather across much of the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through at least March 6, with next week expected to be a little cooler than this week.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 125.5 bcfd this week to 133.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants rose to 18.6 bcfd so far in February, from 17.8 bcfd in January and on track to beat the monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

In LNG news, QatarEnergy/Exxon Mobil's XOM.N 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass export plant under construction in Texas was on track to take in more feedgas this week as it prepared to produce its first LNG.

	Week ended Feb 13 Actual	Week ended Feb 6 Actual	Year ago Feb 13	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 13
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-144	-249	-182	-151
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,070	2,214	2,129	2,193
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-5.6%	-5.5%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.04	3.01	3.74	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.28	10.17	15.28	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	10.40	9.96	14.41	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	339	325	407	376	360
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	12	10	3	8	6
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	351	335	410	384	366

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	108.2	110.3	110.4	101.8	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.0	9.1	9.1	N/A	9.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.3	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	118.3	119.4	119.6	N/A	106.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.8	4.0	4.0	N/A	3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.5	6.5	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.6	18.8	18.5	15.8	12.6
U.S. Commercial	17.4	13.2	15.6	21.0	14.6
U.S. Residential	28.6	21.2	25.6	37.9	24.0
U.S. Power Plant	33.0	29.6	29.8	24.6	31.8
U.S. Industrial	25.5	24.0	25.1	27.0	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.4	5.5	5.3	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.0	2.6	2.8	3.0	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	113.0	96.2	104.5	118.9	105.2
Total U.S. Demand	142.0	125.5	133.5	N/A	126.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	94	97	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	93	95	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	98	100	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 20	Week ended Feb 13	2025	2024	2023
Wind	15	11	11	11	10
Solar	5	6	6	5	4
Hydro	7	6	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	1	0	0	0
Natural Gas	36	37	40	42	41
Coal	16	19	18	16	17
Nuclear	20	19	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.98	3.13	4.19	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.77	2.57	4.90	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.12	2.20	3.78	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.52	2.32	4.03	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.62	2.64	4.19	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	6.30	5.85	13.65	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.70	2.88	4.19	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-2.41	-2.05	2.76	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.58	1.36	1.53	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	78.78	72.50	134.58	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	43.30	40.09	53.89	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	30.10	25.21	67.87	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	22.50	22.00	29.05	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	27.34	20.70	25.19	28.44	53.02

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