US natgas futures up 2% on cooler weather ahead of storage report
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Thursday on forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.2 cents, or 1.7%, to $3.063 per million British thermal units. On Wednesday, the contract closed at its lowest since October 17 for a second day in a row.
That price increase came ahead of a federal storage report expected to show energy firms pulled a near-normal 146 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended February 13.
That compares with a decline of 182 bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 151 bcf for the period over the last five years (2021-2025). EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
GAS STORAGE LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW
There is about 6% less gas in storage than usual for this time of year. Analysts, however, expect most of that deficit will be wiped out by early March. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for a 10th straight day and the 19th time so far this year, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.
Daily Waha prices closed below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.
Waha prices have averaged $1.02 per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 108.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.
Meteorologists projected weather across much of the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through at least March 6 with next week expected to be a little cooler than this week.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 125.5 bcfd this week to 133.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants rose to 18.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and on track to beat the monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.
In LNG news, QatarEnergy/Exxon Mobil's XOM.N 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass export plant under construction in Texas was on track to take in more feedgas this week as it prepares to produce its first LNG.
| Week ended Feb 13 Forecast | Week ended Feb 6 Actual | Year ago Feb 13 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 13 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -146 | -249 | -182 | -151 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,068 | 2,214 | 2,129 | 2,193 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -5.7% | -5.5% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.04 | 3.01 | 3.74 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.28 | 10.17 | 15.28 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 10.40 | 9.96 | 14.41 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 339 | 325 | 407 | 376 | 360 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 12 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 351 | 335 | 410 | 384 | 366 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 108.2 | 110.3 | 110.4 | 101.8 | 97.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 10.0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | N/A | 9.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 118.3 | 119.4 | 119.6 | N/A | 106.9 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | N/A | 3.5 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.6 | 18.8 | 18.5 | 15.8 | 12.6 |
U.S. Commercial | 17.4 | 13.2 | 15.6 | 21.0 | 14.6 |
U.S. Residential | 28.6 | 21.2 | 25.6 | 37.9 | 24.0 |
U.S. Power Plant | 33.0 | 29.6 | 29.8 | 24.6 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 25.5 | 24.0 | 25.1 | 27.0 | 25.2 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 113.0 | 96.2 | 104.5 | 118.9 | 105.2 |
Total U.S. Demand | 142.0 | 125.5 | 133.5 | N/A | 126.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 94 | 97 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 93 | 95 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 98 | 100 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended Feb 20 | Week ended Feb 13 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 15 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 36 | 37 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 16 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.98 | 3.13 | 4.19 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.77 | 2.57 | 4.90 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.12 | 2.20 | 3.78 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.52 | 2.32 | 4.03 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.62 | 2.64 | 4.19 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 6.30 | 5.85 | 13.65 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.70 | 2.88 | 4.19 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -2.41 | -2.05 | 2.76 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.58 | 1.36 | 1.53 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 78.78 | 72.50 | 134.58 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 43.30 | 40.09 | 53.89 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 30.10 | 25.21 | 67.87 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 22.50 | 22.00 | 29.05 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 27.34 | 20.70 | 25.19 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
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