US natural gas futures hit 16-week low as forecasts predict warmer weather

ReutersFeb 11, 2026 2:27 PM

Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints
LSEG reports increased gas output in Lower 48 states
Mild weather may reduce storage deficit by early March

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a 16-week low on Wednesday on forecasts for warmer weather and lower demand next week than previously expected.

Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5 cents, or 1.6%, to $3.065 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since October 17. On Tuesday, the front-month closed at its lowest price since January 16 for a second day in a row.

In the cash market, meanwhile, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for a fifth day in a row and the 14th time this year, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first fell below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

Waha prices have averaged $1.49 per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has climbed to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That figure compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

After extreme cold over the past couple of weeks, meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through February 26.

Energy firms pulled a record 360 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended January 30 to meet surging heating demand during an Arctic blast, cutting stockpiles to around 1% below normal levels for this time of year. Continued cold weather last week likely cut inventories further to around 6% below normal during the week ended February 6. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Energy analysts, however, noted mild weather expected over the next few weeks could wipe out much of that storage deficit by early March.

Energy firms stockpile gas during the summer (April-October) when demand is generally lower than daily output and pull that gas out of storage during the winter (November-March) when demand for heating is usually higher than daily output.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 141.2 bcfd this week to 124.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.5 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

	Week ended Feb 6 Forecast	Week ended Jan 30 Actual	Year ago Feb 6	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 6
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-249	-360	-111	-146
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,214	2,463	2,311	2,344
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-5.5%	-1.1%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.15	3.12	3.74	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.39	11.47	15.28	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.02	11.05	14.41	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	314	321	489	398	389
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	5	5	7	7	5
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	319	326	496	405	394

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.1	107.9	108.2	105.6	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.9	9.8	9.2	N/A	9.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	118.1	117.8	117.4	N/A	106.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.0	3.8	3.7	N/A	3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.3	6.5	6.5	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.6	18.7	18.5	15.5	12.6
U.S. Commercial	20.9	17.3	13.1	18.2	14.6
U.S. Residential	35.7	28.4	21.0	30.8	24.0
U.S. Power Plant	39.6	32.7	29.7	24.6	31.8
U.S. Industrial	26.8	25.4	24.0	26.1	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.5	3.0	2.5	3.5	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	131.9	112.2	95.8	108.6	105.2
Total U.S. Demand	159.8	141.2	124.6	N/A	126.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	93	93	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	92	92	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	97	97	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 13	Week ended Feb 6	2025	2024	2023
Wind	12	9	11	11	10
Solar	5	4	6	5	4
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	1	1	0	0	0
Natural Gas	36	40	40	42	41
Coal	20	21	18	16	17
Nuclear	19	18	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.18	3.25	4.19	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.67	3.75	4.90	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.39	2.19	3.78	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.91	2.95	4.03	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.02	3.00	4.19	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	12.10	15.25	13.65	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.01	2.90	4.19	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-0.66	-0.89	2.76	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.21	1.13	1.53	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	102.74	155.50	134.58	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	48.26	72.21	53.89	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	30.79	26.11	67.87	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	32.00	22.06	29.05	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	33.35	32.04	25.19	28.44	53.02

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