US natgas futures dip to 3-week low as warmer weather cuts demand forecast

ReutersFeb 10, 2026 8:03 PM

Waha Hub prices fall due to pipeline constraints
Lower 48 states' gas output rises to 107.4 bcfd in February
Mild weather may reduce storage deficit by March

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas eased to a fresh three-week low on Tuesday on forecasts for warmer weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.3 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $3.115 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since January 16 for a second day in a row.

Looking ahead, the premium of futures for November over October NGV26-X26 rose to around 27 cents per mmBtu, its highest since October 2024.

Traders use the March-April NGH26-J26 and October-November spreads to bet on winter weather forecasts and supply and demand. March is the last month of the winter heating season when utilities pull gas out of storage, and October is the last month of the summer cooling season when utilities inject gas into storage.

In the cash market, meanwhile, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas fell into negative territory for a fourth day in a row and the 13th time this year, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first fell below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

Waha prices have averaged $1.58 per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

After extreme cold over the past couple of weeks, meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through February 25. Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast, however, were expected to remain below normal for a few more days.

Energy firms pulled a record 360 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended January 30 to meet surging heating demand during an Arctic blast, cutting stockpiles to around 1% below normal levels for this time of year. Continued cold last week likely cut inventories down to around 6% below normal during the week ended February 6. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Energy analysts, however, noted mild weather over the next few weeks could wipe out much of that storage deficit by March.

Energy firms stockpile gas during the summer (April-October) when demand is generally lower than daily output and pull that gas out of storage during the winter (November-March) when demand for heating is usually higher than daily output.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 141.1 bcfd this week to 125.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.5 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

	Week ended Feb 6 Forecast	Week ended Jan 30 Actual	Year ago Feb 6	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 6
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-249	-360	-111	-146
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,214	2,463	2,311	2,344
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-5.5%	-1.1%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.14	3.14	3.74	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.31	11.54	15.28	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.05	11.11	14.41	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	321	355	489	398	393
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	5	6	7	7	5
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	326	361	496	405	398

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.1	107.8	108.3	105.6	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.9	9.7	9.0	N/A	9.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	118.1	117.6	117.4	N/A	106.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.0	3.7	3.6	N/A	3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.3	6.5	6.5	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.6	18.6	18.2	15.5	12.6
U.S. Commercial	20.9	17.4	13.2	18.2	14.6
U.S. Residential	35.7	28.6	21.4	30.8	24.0
U.S. Power Plant	39.6	32.6	30.2	24.6	31.8
U.S. Industrial	26.8	25.4	24.0	26.1	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.4	5.3	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.5	3.0	2.6	3.5	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	131.9	112.4	96.8	108.6	105.2
Total U.S. Demand	159.8	141.1	125.1	N/A	126.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	93	93	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	92	92	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	97	97	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 13	Week ended Feb 6	2025	2024	2023
Wind	11	9	11	11	10
Solar	5	4	6	5	4
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	1	1	0	0	0
Natural Gas	37	40	40	42	41
Coal	20	21	18	16	17
Nuclear	18	18	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.25	4.37	4.19	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.75	17.42	4.90	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.19	2.29	3.78	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.95	3.80	4.03	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.00	3.97	4.19	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	15.25	36.55	13.65	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.90	2.94	4.19	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-0.89	-0.98	2.76	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.13	1.20	1.53	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	155.50	305.43	134.58	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	72.21	218.96	53.89	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	26.11	23.12	67.87	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	22.06	27.38	29.05	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	32.04	27.28	25.19	28.44	53.02

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.