US natural gas futures drop 3% on rising output and mild weather

ReutersFeb 6, 2026 8:37 PM

Mild weather expected to reduce heating demand
Gas output in Lower 48 states rises to 106.9 bcfd
LNG export flows increase to 18.5 bcfd in February

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 3% on rising output and forecasts for mild weather over the next two weeks that should cause heating demand to decline through late February.

Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 8.7 cents, or 2.5%, to settle at $3.422 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

For the week, the contract fell about 21% after dropping 17% last week.

Earlier in the week, however, gas futures climbed for four days in a row due in part to the rapid drop in the amount of gas in storage.

Energy firms pulled a record 360 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended January 30 to meet surging heating demand during an Arctic blast, putting stockpiles on track to drop from around 5% above normal during the week ended January 23 to around 6% below normal during the week ended February 6. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Energy analysts, however, have said mild weather could wipe out much of that storage deficit over the next month or so.

Energy firms stockpile gas during the summer (April-October) when demand is generally lower than daily output for use during the winter (November-March) when demand for heating is generally higher than daily output.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 106.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

After extreme cold last week, meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through February 21. Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast, however, were still expected to remain below normal for several more days.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 159.5 bcfd this week to 141.4 bcfd next week and 132.6 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.5 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

	Week ended Feb 6 Forecast	Week ended Jan 30 Actual	Year ago Feb 6	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 6
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-249	-360	-111	-146
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,214	2,463	2,311	2,344
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-5.5%	-1.1%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.59	3.51	3.74	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.98	12.10	15.28	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.08	11.10	14.41	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	374	369	407	415	409
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	4	5	14	5	4
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	378	374	421	420	413

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	98.9	107.0	107.2	105.6	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	11.9	10.9	9.1	N/A	9.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	110.9	118.0	116.3	N/A	106.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.5	3.0	3.2	N/A	3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico	5.7	5.8	6.2	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.3	18.6	18.6	15.0	12.6
U.S. Commercial	24.6	20.9	17.1	15.3	14.6
U.S. Residential	43.4	35.7	28.3	24.7	24.0
U.S. Power Plant	41.5	39.5	33.9	32.3	31.8
U.S. Industrial	28.2	27.1	25.5	24.9	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	4.9	5.3	5.3	4.9	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.9	3.5	3.0	3.9	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	146.8	132.1	113.3	106.1	105.2
Total U.S. Demand	170.3	159.5	141.4	N/A	126.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	94	93	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	93	93	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	99	97	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 6	Week ended Jan 30	2025	2024	2023
Wind	8	8	11	11	10
Solar	4	4	6	5	4
Hydro	5	6	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	1	2	0	0	0
Natural Gas	40	39	40	42	41
Coal	22	22	18	16	17
Nuclear	18	17	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	5.28	6.88	4.19	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	8.32	25.08	4.90	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.10	2.04	3.78	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	3.56	4.31	4.03	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.69	4.25	4.19	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	18.71	28.25	13.65	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.77	2.75	4.19	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-0.10	-0.12	2.76	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.31	1.41	1.53	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	199.54	213.25	134.58	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	131.58	164.69	53.89	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	25.93	26.84	67.87	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	22.06	27.38	29.05	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	23.02	27.55	25.19	28.44	53.02

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