US natgas futures rise 2% ahead of expected record storage draw

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Thursday on increases in gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants ahead of a federal report expected to show energy firms pulled record amounts of gas from storage during last week's deep freeze.

Analysts forecast energy firms pulled a record 374 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended January 30. That figure compares with a decline of 195 bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 190 bcf over the past five years (2021-2025). EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.2 cents, or 2.4%, to $3.547 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

That price increase occurred despite forecasts for warmer weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas fell into negative territory for the 10th time this year, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first fell below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

Waha prices have averaged $1.88 per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has edged up to 106.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That figure compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

After extreme cold last week, meteorologists projected weather across the country would turn mostly warmer than normal through February 20. Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast, however, were still expected to remain below normal through mid-February.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 159.5 bcfd this week to 140.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

Analysts projected energy firms likely pulled so much gas out of storage to meet near-record demand during the Arctic blast last week that stockpiles would go from around 5% above normal for this time of year during the week ended January 23 to about 1% below normal during the week ended January 30. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.4 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January. That figure compares with a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $11 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU